436
FXUS06 KWBC 271902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 06 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
OVERALL AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD AND IN THE PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN
MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GREATER DUE
TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. ALL MODELS PREDICT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ACROSS THE BERING SEA, ALASKA, AND WESTERN CANADA AT THE START OF THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IS PREDICTED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED BY ALL MODELS TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA AND THE WESTERN
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAT EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS IN
MODEL FORECASTS FOR DAY 6 ARE PREDICTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE
500-HPA ANOMALIES PREDICTED OVER THE EAST ON DAY 6 IN ALL MODELS, QUICKLY
DEAMPLIFY AS HEIGHTS RISE.
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
OVERALL AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD AND IN THE PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN
MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GREATER DUE
TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. ALL MODELS PREDICT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ACROSS THE BERING SEA, ALASKA, AND WESTERN CANADA AT THE START OF THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IS PREDICTED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED BY ALL MODELS TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO WESTERN CANADA AND THE WESTERN
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAT EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS IN
MODEL FORECASTS FOR DAY 6 ARE PREDICTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE
500-HPA ANOMALIES PREDICTED OVER THE EAST ON DAY 6 IN ALL MODELS, QUICKLY
DEAMPLIFY AS HEIGHTS RISE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA EXCLUDING THE NORTH SLOPE, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK, UNDER
AVERAGE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY INTO MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST,
EXCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII AND SOUTH
FLORIDA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PREDICTED SURFACE LOW, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS, CONSISTENT WITH REFORECAST CALIBRATED MODEL
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN FAR NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF MODEL
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA, AND SOUTHERN OREGON AND IDAHO, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE AND
CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE MIDWEST AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR
EASTERN AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,
WITH ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THE GULF COAST REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST,
CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN,
OFFSET BY A CHANGING CIRCULATION PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 04 - 10 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL PREDICT A SIMILAR PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD FORECASTS, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF
ANOMALIES. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALASKA IN
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, FOLLOWED
BY A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES LATER IN WEEK 2.
WEAK TROUGHING PERSISTS THROUGHOUT WEEK 2 NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST IN ALL
MODEL FORECASTS, WHILE A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AMPLIFY
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS IN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WITH A CHANGING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION,
PROBABILITIES ARE WEAK IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA, CONSISTENT
WITH MOST MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA, UNDER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
IN THE MANUAL BLEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
INTERIOR MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. UNDER PERSISTENT RIDGING AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
CONUS, EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS, AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEAST,
WHERE TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE LESS CONSISTENT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS IN THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR EASTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AS
WELL AS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED AMPLIFYING TROUGH DURING THE
PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN WEEK 2, WITH POTENTIAL SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF A PREDICTED
TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST,
WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS, WITH ENHANCED SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY AND
CHANGING PATTERN AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240507 - 19980508 - 19910530 - 20230529 - 20240601
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240507 - 20060506 - 19910530 - 19980508 - 20250515
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 06 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 04 - 10 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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