985
FXUS06 KWBC 281904
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 07 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
OVERALL AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD AND IN THE PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN
MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN GREATER DUE
TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. ALL MODELS PREDICT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ACROSS THE BERING SEA INTO ALASKA AT THE START OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A RIDGE
AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER ARE PREDICTED OVER EASTERN CANADA AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC ARE PREDICTED BY ALL MODELS TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY AS THEY APPROACH WESTERN CANADA AND THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS) DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE ARCTIC ARE PREDICTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
MAINLAND ALASKA. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAT EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS IN MODEL FORECASTS FOR DAY 6 ARE
PREDICTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON DAY 6 IN ALL MODELS, QUICKLY DEAMPLIFY AS HEIGHTS RISE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS AND MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE NORTH SLOPE, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS, AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK, UNDER AVERAGE POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECASTS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WEST TEXAS AND MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE
TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII AND SOUTH FLORIDA,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PREDICTED SURFACE LOW, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS, CONSISTENT WITH REFORECAST
CALIBRATED MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER PREDICTED
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED IN NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
CONSISTENT WITH ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND PARTS OF
ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN OREGON, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA, SOUTHEASTERN OREGON, AND SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO, UNDER A
PREDICTED RIDGE AND CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR EASTERN AREAS OF
THE SOUTHWEST, PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHEAST,
WITH ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION ANOMALY FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN,
OFFSET BY A CHANGING CIRCULATION PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 11 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL PREDICT A SIMILAR PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD FORECASTS, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF
ANOMALIES. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALASKA INTO
THE BERING SEA IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION. A
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES LATER IN
WEEK 2. WEAK TROUGHING PERSISTS THROUGH MOST OF WEEK 2 NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IN ALL MODEL FORECASTS, WHILE A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS IN THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS IN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEANS.
WITH A CHANGING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION,
PROBABILITIES ARE WEAK IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA, CONSISTENT
WITH MOST MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER EXPANDING NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE MANUAL BLEND. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH INCONSISTENCIES
IN DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. UNDER PERSISTENT RIDGING AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
CONUS, EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS, AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF TEXAS, THE GULF COAST
REGION, AND THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST, WHERE TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE LESS
CONSISTENT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
ECMWF FORECASTS AND THE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND
ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, UNDER A PREDICTED
AMPLIFYING TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD AND INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR EASTERN AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN WEEK 2, DUE TO POTENTIAL SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION AND
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH ANALOGS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND OF
500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS AND WITH THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII IN WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY AND
CHANGING PATTERN AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240508 - 19980508 - 20230529 - 19910531 - 19980514
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240507 - 19910530 - 19980508 - 20060507 - 20180527
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 07 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 11 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page