902
FXUS01 KWBC 290449
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1245 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VALID 12Z FRI MAY 29 2026 - 12Z SUN MAY 31 2026
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND..
...AN PACIFIC LOW MAINTAINS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND DAKOTA ON SATURDAY...
THE UPPER-LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES TO BRING A BROAD TROUGH OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S., WHILE A RIDGING PATTERN WILL PUSH
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN U.S. BY THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, A WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY. THEREFORE, WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE A BROAD MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4)
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR
FRIDAY. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, AS THE FRONT
INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
FARTHER WEST, THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY
OPEN AN DEJECT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG. THEREFORE,
STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MONTANA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS, WITH A CHANCE
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ON FRIDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA, WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BECOMES REINFORCED AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. WPC HAS ALSO ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS
MAY BRING HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST, COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN U.S. WITH TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS, 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY, WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ON FRIDAY, THE NORTHEAST WILL START TO SEE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY, AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY.
OUDIT
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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