902
FXUS02 KWBC 290800
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VALID 12Z MON JUN 01 2026 - 12Z FRI JUN 05 2026
..OVERVIEW
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD, STARTING ON MONDAY, WILL FEATURE AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST COAST AS WELL
AS ALONG THE ROCKIES/NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST VORT MAX WILL SLIP NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BEFORE PROPAGATING INTO THE CANADIAN MERETIME
BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED BY
WAVES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF EASTERN CANADA BEFORE QUICKLY
RETREATING BACK NORTH AND OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING ROCKIES/WESTERN U.S. LOW.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE WESTERN U.S. PATTERN, WHILE NOTABLY DIVERGING ON THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH EVOLUTION. IN THE EAST, THE GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY MID-WEEK AND HAS IT SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO
SEA WHILE THE EURO IS NOTABLY WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE.
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND CONSISTING OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND
AI GUIDANCE WERE USED IN THE DAY 3 BLEND WITH EQUAL WEIGHTING
ACROSS THE BOARD. THE VARIANCE ALONG THE EAST COAST IS THE GREATEST
ON DAY 4 WHERE THE DETERMINSTIC EURO GFS AND CANADIAN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. A COMPOSITE OF ALL 3 WAS USED TO FIND AN
AVERAGE. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS MAKE UP A MAJORITY OF THE BLEND
BEGINNING ON DAY 5 DUE TO THE DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW AND UNCERTAINTY
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
TROUGHING IN THE WEST ABOVE A DECAYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING NEXT
TUESDAY, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN OUR DAY 4 MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5%
CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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