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FXUS06 KWBC 291901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 04 - 08 2026
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A 500-HPA RIDGE
RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) BY JUNE 7. AS THIS
ANOMALOUS RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN, 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 582 DM AS
FAR NORTH AS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WHICH ARE 120 METERS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALSO DEPICT A
JULY-LIKE RIDGE WITH 588 DM HEIGHTS FROM KANSAS CITY TO ST LOUIS. THIS
ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGE STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST. DUE TO POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES, AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN CONUS, NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE LOWER 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND. THEREFORE, A TWO-CATEGORY
CHANGE (LEANING ABOVE TO BELOW) WAS NECESSARY FOR NORTHWESTERN OREGON AND
WESTERN WASHINGTON.
30-DAY PRECIPITATION HAS AVERAGED 200 TO 400 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, THE GULF COAST, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RECENT
WETNESS LED TO SOIL MOISTURE (SM) INCREASING TO ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN
MANY OF THESE AREAS. A WET PATTERN AND SATURATED SOILS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH MID-JUNE. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN SM AND
TEMPERATURE DURING JUNE. THEREFORE, SM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A COOLING EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, TEXAS, AND GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY JUNE. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO EXPECTED
FOR THESE SAME AREAS. THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FAVORS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, GULF COAST, AND TEXAS WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND BIG BEND REGION
OF TEXAS.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE FAR SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS SUPPORTS
ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS
EAST TO GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS MORE UNCERTAIN BUT IN GENERAL THE
TOOLS ARE SLIGHTLY WETTER CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS REGION
WOULD BE MOST VULNERABLE TO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TRACKING OVERTOP THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE
LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CONUS (OUTSIDE OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DRY AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST).
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA. THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN YIELDS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS
GENERALLY LEAN TOWARDS NEAR OR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. A DEEP 500-HPA
TROUGH FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
NORTH SLOPE.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII
EXCEPT THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS. ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 06 - 12 2026
A BROAD, ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGE IS FORECAST TO COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48
STATES DURING EARLY TO MID-JUNE. ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT AMONG THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS AS A SUMMERTIME PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE GEFS MAINTAINS
MORE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND ALSO DEPICTS A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LATER IN WEEK-2, THE ECENS IS FASTER
WITH AN INCREASE IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
BROAD-SCALE RIDGING ALOFT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH A
GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN WHERE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT
7-DAY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +5 TO +15 DEGREES F. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK LEANS WARMER-THAN-NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS,
BUT PROBABILITIES DECREASE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. ALTHOUGH MOIST SOIL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROVIDING A COOLING
EFFECT, 500-HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES OF +30 METERS (SUBSTANTIAL FOR JUNE ACROSS
THE SOUTH) SUPPORT ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FOR MOST OF
TEXAS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GULF COAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE LOWER TO MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN OREGON AND WESTERN WASHINGTON
WITH A VARIABLE TEMPERATURE PATTERN (BELOW TO ABOVE) LIKELY DURING WEEK-2.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IN A SUMMERTIME PATTERN DOMINATED
BY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. THE UNCALIBRATED DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUT AND THE ANALOG
TOOL DERIVED FROM THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED AS
GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE OUTLOOK LEANS SLIGHTLY (33-40% CHANCE) WET FOR THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST, THERE ARE SIGNS
THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES LESS ACTIVE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE TOOLS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES (> 40%) ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, DUE IN PART TO THE DRIER CLIMATOLOGY. ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THE GEFS (REFORECAST
AND UNCALIBRATED) ALONG WITH THE ANALOG TOOL SUPPORT LEANING ON THE DRIER SIDE
FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. THE ANALOG WOULD SUPPORT AN EVEN LARGER AREA OF
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH IS PLAUSIBLE. THIS
REGION WILL BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH EARLY
IN WEEK-2 SUPPORTS ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR PARTS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE, NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
A CLOSED 500-HPA LOW TO THE NORTH OF ALASKA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO
THE BERING SEA SUPPORTS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
STATEWIDE FOR ALASKA. BASED ON THE ANALOG TOOL, PROBABILITIES EXCEED 40 PERCENT
ACROSS WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE IN PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND BELOW FOR NORTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII EXCEPT THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED THROUGH WEEK-2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK OFFSET BY WEAK OR CONFLICTING
SIGNALS AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980509 - 20230529 - 19910531 - 20250525 - 20180526
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240508 - 19910531 - 19980509 - 20230529 - 20030514
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 04 - 08 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 06 - 12 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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