181
FXUS02 KWBC 300736
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 02 2026 - 12Z SAT JUN 06 2026
..OVERVIEW
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE DAYS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK. A NARROW RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL GENERATE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST, BEFORE EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE EAST. A DEEP MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PROMOTE
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST MID- WEEK. A
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF COAST COULD
FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS MID-TO-LATE- WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5. A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND CONSISTING OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND AI
GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED IN THE DAYS 4 AND 5 BLENDS DUE TO A GROWING
CONSENSUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
DRIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN-CENTRAL
CANADA, AS WELL AS THE EAST COAST LOW. BY DAY 5, THE CANADIAN AND
GEFS MEANS WERE INTRODUCED TO THE BLEND DUE TO AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THEM ON THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC EURO IS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS REGARDING THE MOVEMENT OF
THE EAST COAST LOW, THEREFORE WASN'T INCLUDED IN THE BLEND BEYOND
DAY 4. THE GEFS/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN COMBO IS FAVORED IN THE
BLEND THROUGH DAY 7.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL FOCUS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT
WEEK. SOME CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ON TUESDAY, WHICH IS
WHY A MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
IN EFFECT. WARM MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM, BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY TO MID-WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD LATE NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INTERACT WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND GULF COAST. THIS MIGHT GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS WELL AS DAILY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FLORIDA. MODELS HAVE SHIED AWAY FROM A MORE ROBUST SOLUTION SO
THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DUE TO CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIPITATION EARLY-TO-MID-WEEK.
IT'LL CONTINUE TO BE MILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, BUT NOTHING OUT OF
THE ORDINARY NEXT WEEK.
KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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