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FXUS06 KWBC 301902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 09 2026
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) RESTRENGTHENING FROM JUNE 5 TO 9. AS THIS
ANOMALOUS RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN ON JUNE 8 AND 9, 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 582 DM AS FAR NORTH AS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WHICH
ARE 120 METERS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS
ALSO DEPICT A JULY-LIKE RIDGE WITH 588 DM HEIGHTS FROM KANSAS CITY TO ST LOUIS.
THIS ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGE STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST. DUE TO POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTENDS WEST
INTO THE ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN, AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS A
500-HPA TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GEFS IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH KEEPS ANY ANOMALOUS WARMTH WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE PREFERRED ECENS AND ANALOG TOOL RESULT IN THE 6-10 DAY
OUTLOOK LEANING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST.
30-DAY PRECIPITATION HAS AVERAGED 200 TO 400 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, THE GULF COAST, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RECENT
WETNESS LED TO SOIL MOISTURE (SM) INCREASING TO ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN
MANY OF THESE AREAS. A WET PATTERN AND SATURATED SOILS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY JUNE. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE CORRELATION
BETWEEN SM AND TEMPERATURE DURING JUNE. THEREFORE, SM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
COOLING EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, TEXAS, AND GULF
COAST REGION. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THESE
SAME AREAS. THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FAVORS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST, GULF COAST, AND TEXAS WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
ON DAYS 6 AND 7 (JUNE 5 AND 6), A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO CROSS THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
THIS FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EAST TO THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS
PREDICTED SURFACE PATTERN COUPLED WITH RETURN GULF FLOW HAS LED TO MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDING WETTER THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THE PAST FEW
DAYS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS NOW FAVORED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES (40-50%) OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS ALIGN WITH WHERE THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY TO BECOME
STATIONARY AND THE ECENS HAS MORE THAN 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
5-DAY PERIOD. TYPICAL FOR EARLY JUNE, LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH SHIFTING
ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUPPORTS ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION.
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. THIS YIELDS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE AREAS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, BASED ON THE REFORECAST TOOLS. A DEEP
500-HPA TROUGH, RETROGRADING WEST NEAR NORTHERN ALASKA, FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH SLOPE.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII
EXCEPT THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS. ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY AND IMPROVED AGREEMENT AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 13 2026
A BROAD, ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGE IS FORECAST TO COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48
STATES DURING EARLY TO MID-JUNE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN STRENGTH
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS EARLY IN WEEK-2 AND THEN THERE COULD BE A PATTERN
CHANGE UNDERWAY BY MID-JUNE, AS THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS WESTWARD. THE
ECENS AND CMCE AGREE ON THE AMPLIFYING 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
LATER IN WEEK-2 WHICH WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM
OVER ALASKA. THE BROAD-SCALE RIDGING ALOFT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA
ANOMALIES FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS. A
WIDESPREAD AREA WITH A GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN WHERE
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT 7-DAY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF +5 TO +15
DEGREES F. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK LEANS WARMER-THAN-NORMAL ALONG THE
EAST COAST, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH A LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD ON
THE AMPLITUDE OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2. ALTHOUGH MOIST
SOIL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROVIDING A COOLING EFFECT FROM THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY EAST TO THE GULF COAST, 500-HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES OF +30 METERS
(SUBSTANTIAL FOR JUNE ACROSS THE SOUTH) SUPPORT ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FOR MOST AREAS. BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS, NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR PARTS OF TEXAS.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS MORE UNCERTAIN DURING WEEK-2 AS A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WITH CONVECTIVE RAINFALL BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE UNCALIBRATED
DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUT AND THE ANALOG TOOL DERIVED FROM THE MANUAL 500-HPA
HEIGHT BLEND WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED AS GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE OUTLOOK LEANS
SLIGHTLY (33-40% CHANCE) WET FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST, THE ANALOG TOOL IS MUCH DRIER. THE TOOLS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGEST ABOVE-NORMAL PROBABILITIES (> 40%) ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, DUE IN PART TO THE DRIER CLIMATOLOGY. MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE TYPICALLY MOST ACTIVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH SUPPORTS ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.. THE UNCALIBRATED GEFS AND ECENS ALONG WITH
THE ANALOG TOOL SUPPORT LEANING ON THE DRIER SIDE FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH, AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN
CONUS (OUTSIDE OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST).
A CLOSED 500-HPA LOW TO THE NORTH OF ALASKA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO
THE BERING SEA SUPPORTS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
STATEWIDE FOR ALASKA. BASED ON A SKILL-WEIGHTED CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GEFS AND
ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS, PROBABILITIES EXCEED 40 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA. THE WET PATTERN AND AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH SUPPORT NEAR TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII EXCEPT THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED THROUGH WEEK-2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY WEAK OR CONFLICTING SIGNALS
AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20250525 - 19910603 - 19980521 - 20160612 - 20230527
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910601 - 20250524 - 20230530 - 19980509 - 20030515
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 09 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 13 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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