558
FXUS02 KWBC 301950
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 02 2026 - 12Z SAT JUN 06 2026
..OVERVIEW
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
DOME OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING IT. LOW
PRESSURE/ TROUGHS UPSTREAM WILL BRING PROLONGED WET TO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A SHIFT EAST IN PRECIP FOCUS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MIDWEEK TO THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE THE BASE OF AN EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SPIN INTO
A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE OUTER BANKS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
TRACKING OUT TO SEA. FINALLY, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH OF
THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE OVERALL TROUGH OUT WEST, CENTRAL RIDGE, AND EASTERN TROUGH ARE
IN DECENT DETERMINISTIC AND AI AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER,
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR NC REMAIN
UNCERTAIN WITH THE 12Z SUITE. THE CMC IS STILL THE MOST PROGRESSIVE
AND OFFSHORE, WHILE THE UKMET AND GFS ARE THE FARTHEST SOUTH (MORE
OVER SC THAN NC) WITH THE EC/EC-AIFS IN BETWEEN (AND THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION) OVER CAPE HATTERAS. THE 06Z GFS WAS A NOTABLE OUTLIER
WEST (OVER CENTRAL NC) WITH CONSENSUS POINTING TOWARD A MORE GULF
STREAM BASED POSITION NEAR/OFFSHORE NC. THE MIDDLE CONUS TROUGH
AXIS AND THE EASTERN EXTENT OF ITS TILT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
TIME ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MOIST RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND AI GUIDANCE ON A DEEP LOW APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE FORECAST PREFERENCE
IS MAINLY DETERMINISTIC WITH THE MOST WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE EC AND
EC-AIFS BY DAY 5.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON THE GULF-SOURCED MOISTURE PLUME INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/DRIFTING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS/WEST TEXAS TO WARRANT UPGRADES TO SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR BOTH DAYS 4 AND 5 FOR EASTERN NM INTO WEST TEXAS WITH
THE DAY 5 FOCUS A BIT EAST OF DAY 4. WARM MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT
ALONG A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH EARLY JUNE HEATING ALLOWING
FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS FOCUS WILL MERELY DRIFT EAST
OVER TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE THE NORTHERN FOCUS SHIFTS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO TROPICAL HUMID AIR OVER FLORIDA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY IN PLACES.
THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF MAY
INTERACT WITH REMNANT FRONTS/TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEK. AN EYE WILL NEED TO BE
KEPT HERE AS HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY, BUT THE FOCUS HAS SHIFTED BACK
AND FORTH FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO EAST TEXAS WITH SOUTHERN LA THE
CURRENT FOCUS IN BETWEEN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST MIDWEEK TO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT
WEEK DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST
FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
JACKSON
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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