364
FXUS06 KWBC 311902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 06 - 10 2026
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT A STRONG 500-HPA RIDGE RETURNS
TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) FROM JUNE 6 TO 10. THIS ANOMALOUS
500-HPA RIDGE FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MIDWEST WITH THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES (> 70%) FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GEFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER
ECENS AND CMCE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE
FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD. THEREFORE, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORED ALONG THE EAST COAST. DUE TO POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTENDS WEST TO THE ROCKIES. NEAR
TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CALIFORNIA WITH AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH AFFECTING THESE AREAS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
30-DAY PRECIPITATION HAS AVERAGED MORE THAN 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, THE GULF COAST, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
ANOMALOUSLY WET MAY HAS LED TO HIGH SOIL MOISTURE (SM) IN THESE AREAS. THERE IS
A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN SM AND TEMPERATURE DURING JUNE.
THEREFORE, SM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A COOLING EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY, TEXAS, AND GULF COAST REGION. DESPITE A STRENGTHENING
500-HPA RIDGE (HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 588 DM), THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK OUTLOOK ONLY
SLIGHTLY LEANS ON THE WARMER SIDE OR FAVORS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST TO THE GULF COAST.
ON DAY 6 (JUNE 6), A FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS EAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT. THIS PREDICTED SURFACE PATTERN COUPLED WITH RETURN GULF FLOW LEADS
TO ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO DAYS, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AND NOW DEPICT 5-DAY
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH AS FAR NORTH AS CHICAGO. THEREFORE, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WERE INCREASED TODAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH, ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
SUPPORTS ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
A DEEP 500-HPA CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF ALASKA WHICH SUPPORTS
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND
COLDER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALASKA.
THE AMPLIFYING 500-HPA TROUGH LEADS TO ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FOR A MAJORITY OF ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
HAWAII. ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 08 - 14 2026
A BROAD, ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGE IS FORECAST TO COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48
STATES DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN
STRENGTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 AND RECENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE SHIFTED THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EAST WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. EXCEPT FOR THE GULF COAST, THE MANUAL BLEND
DEPICTS 500-HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES OF GREATER THAN +30 METERS. THE EXPANSIVE AND
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING EARLY TO MID-JUNE FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CONUS WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50%
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. LATER IN WEEK-2, THE ECENS IS THE
MOST BULLISH WITH A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND CALIFORNIA. THIS MODEL SOLUTION WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED
TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER ALASKA AND THE WEEK-2 OUTLOOK HEDGED TOWARDS THE WARMER
ECENS THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN CONUS.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS MORE UNCERTAIN DURING WEEK-2 AS A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WITH CONVECTIVE RAINFALL BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE UNCALIBRATED
DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUT AND THE ANALOG TOOL DERIVED FROM THE MANUAL 500-HPA
HEIGHT BLEND WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED AS GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE OUTLOOK LEANS
SLIGHTLY (33-40% CHANCE) WET FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN TO CENTRAL CONUS, THE
ANALOG TOOL IS DRIER WHICH LOWERS FORECAST CONFIDENCE. SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY
OUTLOOK, THE INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPANDED NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER, 7-DAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECENS AND GEFS
REMAIN LOWER FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WHERE NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY. THE ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FORECAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IS RELATED TO A
PREDICTED FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVERTOP THE
500-HPA RIDGE. EARLY IN WEEK-2, THE GEFS AND ECENS ARE DEPICTING AN EASTERLY
WAVE CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE
GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST, IS EXPECTED TO END BY THE BEGINNING OF
WEEK-2. THEREFORE, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO LEAN ON THE DRIER SIDE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN, WHILE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY AREAS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.
A CLOSED 500-HPA LOW TO THE NORTH OF ALASKA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO
THE BERING SEA SUPPORTS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
MUCH OF ALASKA. BASED ON A SKILL-WEIGHTED CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECENS
REFORECAST TOOLS, PROBABILITIES EXCEED 40 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
THE WET PATTERN AND 500-HPA TROUGH SUPPORT NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ALONG COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA
AND SURROUNDING THE ALASKA PENINSULA ALSO SUPPORT COLDER-THAN-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE AREAS.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII EXCEPT THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED THROUGH WEEK-2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY WEAK OR CONFLICTING SIGNALS
AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS ALONG WITH INCREASING ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20250525 - 19910603 - 19980521 - 20230604 - 20170604
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20250524 - 19910603 - 20230531 - 19910608 - 19980520
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 06 - 10 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 08 - 14 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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