810
FXUS01 KWBC 010558
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 AM EDT MON JUN 01 2026
VALID 12Z MON JUN 01 2026 - 12Z WED JUN 03 2026
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS AND THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CONUS. ON MONDAY, A LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, CHANCES FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE, THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER (WPC) HAS HIGHLIGHTED PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, GREAT
PLAINS AND CENTRAL MID-SOUTH WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR MONDAY. WITH A BROAD CORRIDOR OF GULF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY ORGANIZE ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES
AND AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A MARGINAL RISK
EXPANDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
BY TUESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ORGANIZED AND WILL
STRETCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN U.S. DEEPENING EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE, NORTHWESTWARD OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN, WHICH WILL AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO SUPPORT MOISTURE TO
POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WHICH SUPPORTS MOMENTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THEREFORE, WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS, A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND A SECONDARY FRONT DROPPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, WILL REINFORCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WPC HAS MUCH OF THE PLAINS HIGHLIGHTED WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM. MEANWHILE, A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE GULF COAST WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WILL
BRING A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROMOTE INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
TEXAS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MIDWEST, AND PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S, WHILE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
COULD REACH THE 90S. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING.
OUDIT
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