723
FXUS02 KWBC 010800
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
VALID 12Z THU JUN 04 2026 - 12Z MON JUN 08 2026
..OVERVIEW
THE MEDIUM RANGE, BEGINNING THIS THURSDAY, WILL BE ACTIVE FOR THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY, WHERE WEAK MID-
LEVEL VORTICES WILL GENERATE WARM TEMPERATURES, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY WILL FLATTEN BENEATH SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED VORTICES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND RIDGING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES AROUND THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF SMALL
SCALE VORTICES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS
THE SPEED OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST LATE
THIS WEEKEND. THERE'S ALSO SOME SPREAD AS TO HOW THE WEST COAST
TROUGH EVOLVES THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE EURO AND CANADIAN
MODELS DEVELOPING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN BY NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS USED ON DAY 3 FOLLOWED BY AN EARLY
INTRODUCTION OF THE GEFS ON DAY 4 TO DUE TO THE EURO'S SLOW MOVING
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE EURO AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE INTRODUCED TO THE BLEND ON DAYS 5 AND 6 AND ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASED IN WEIGHTING ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE EMERGING SPREAD WITH
THE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S..
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL PATTERN DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY MAY ACT A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MARGINAL RISKS (AT LEAST
5% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GREAT PLAINS AND MIDDLE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, DUE, IN PART, TO
THE FORCING CAUSED BY MID-LEVEL VORTICES PROPAGATING ALONG A
NORTH- SOUTH AXIS THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE, A DEEP TROUGH WILL BRING RAINFALL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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