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FXUS06 KWBC 011909
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JUNE 01 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 11 2026
THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE
6-10 DAY MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN. BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND
WIDESPREAD TROUGHING IS PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH POLAR REGION, WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND WIDESPREAD RIDGING FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. AT HIGH LATITUDES, A CLOSED-OFF
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE ARCTIC
OCEAN AND ALASKA. WEAK TROUGHING IN THE FULL HEIGHT FIELD CONTINUES SOUTHWARD
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND JUST INLAND OF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS). A FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND A STRONG
ANOMALOUS RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER EAST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA, WITH MAXIMUM
HEIGHT ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +150 METERS IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY, CANADA.
A SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ATLANTIC,
WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION THAT REMAINS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
CONUS. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST NORTH OF HAWAII, WITH NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS
FAVORED ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF
THE CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD, STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
EAST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA, AND THE PREDOMINANCE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES OF 80-90% ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS, DUE TO PREDICTED
500-HPA HEIGHTS BEING CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF ALASKA, BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF A
PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS. OVER THE SUBTROPICS, NEAR
TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE (EXCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST). OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICIPATED ONSHORE FLOW. EAST OF THE DIVIDE, THE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS CONSISTENT WITH
WIDESPREAD GULF MOISTURE INFLOW AND MIGRATING DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE ACROSS THE
NATION, ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LARGEST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE LOCATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. SMALL AREAS OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
DEPICTED OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN THE ALASKA DOMAIN,
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE STATE OF ALASKA, DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF A PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE BERING COAST. IN
ADDITION, TROPICAL STORM JANGMI (CURRENTLY SOUTH OF JAPAN) IS FORECAST TO
RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES AND HEAD EAST, CONTRIBUTING TO PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ALASKA COAST FROM ABOUT KODIAK TO KETCHIKAN.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BASED ON
AUTOMATED AND ERFCON PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE
TOOLS, WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE PRECIPITATION MODEL GUIDANCE.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 09 - 15 2026
THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY ON
THE 8-14 DAY MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME VARIATIONS
FORECAST IN BOTH AMPLITUDE AND PHASING. IN THE ALASKA DOMAIN, THE ECENS IS THE
MOST BULLISH ON THE STRENGTH OF A PREDICTED TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ALASKA, WHILE THE CMCE DEPICTS ONLY A VERY WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE BERING COAST
WITH NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. THE RIDGE FAVORED OVER
EAST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA IS PREDICTED TO RETROGRADE IN THE GEFS AND CMCE
SOLUTIONS, BUT THE ECENS LARGELY FAVORS ZONAL FLOW AND POSITIVE HEIGHT
DEPARTURES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN CONUS. A COMPARISON OF THE
VARIOUS MODEL SPREAD (SPAGHETTI) MAPS SHOWS THE GEFS AND CMCE FAVOR SOME
TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, COMPARED TO THE FLAT FLOW INDICATED BY
THE ECENS. NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH.
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS WARMER-THAN-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES OVER
NEARLY ALL OF THE LOWER 48 STATES, BASED ON WIDESPREAD POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FAVORING
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE 60-70% OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. WIDESPREAD
ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED AND
AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALASKA, WITH MOSTLY NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED OVER EASTERN
ALASKA. CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED FOR MOST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, MOST OF THE APPALACHIANS,
AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS BASED PRIMARILY ON GULF INFLOW
INTERACTING WITH PASSING FRONTS, AND UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THERE IS A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS BASED ON MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE. A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FAVORED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY WARRANTS WIDESPREAD NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. AS WAS THE CASE WITH THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD, MOST
OF ALASKA AND HAWAII ARE FAVORED TO HAVE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR-AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1-5,
DUE TO AN OVERALL INCREASE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN, TEMPERATURE, AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS DURING WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20250525 - 19910604 - 20170604 - 20230604 - 20230512
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910604 - 20250525 - 20230604 - 20230511 - 19910609
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 11 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A B
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 09 - 15 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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