949
FXUS02 KWBC 032000
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 06 2026 - 12Z WED JUN 10 2026
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
LATEST GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE BETTER CLUSTERED FOR THE WEEKEND,
BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. A COMPOSITE MODEL/ENSEMBLE/MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE BLEND SEEMS TO PROVIDE A SOLID FORECAST BASIS.
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIMILAR LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION WITH MORE
THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED FLOW PROGRESSION INTO NEXT WEEK GIVEN
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY FLOW, ALBEIT WITH AMPLE SMALL-MID SCALE EMBEDDED
SYSTEM DIFFERENCES TO DECIPHER. A GUIDANCE BLEND FOCUS MORE TOWARD
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEMS TO BEST ADDRESS ISSUES CONSISTENT WITH
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM PREDICTABILITIES. THIS PLAN IS LESS USEFUL WITH
VARIED COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH
IMPACTS MAINLY FROM MARITIME STORM AND BACK-SIDE COASTAL RIP-TIDE
CONCERNS NOW THAT GUIDANCE SHIFTED THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH POSITION
OFFSHORE. WPC MEDIUM-RANGE SURFACE PROGS WERE MANUAL ADJUSTED TO
SOLIDIFY SYSTEM ORGANIZATION CONSISTENT WITH SUPPORT. THIS OVERALL
FORECAST STRATEGY OFFERS GOOD WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY THAT REMAINS
BROADLY IN LINE OVER THE NATION WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHS WITH WEATHER FOCUSING SURFACE LOWS/FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WILL STEADILY FEED INLAND INTO AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST/WEST
THIS WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK, WITH EJECTING ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA. LEAD SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH ENERGY WILL MEANWHILE LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND AND SHEAR OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK TO
FOCUS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION WITH LOCAL HEAVY
RAINS/RUNOFF CONCERNS TO MONITOR. A SUMMERTIME UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES/SETTLES DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. WITH AMPLE
ROUNDING UPPER ENERGY DIGGING TO THE LEE TO CARVE AN AMPLIFIED
EAST COAST/WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH WITH PESKY COASTAL LOWS.
WAVES OF DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
SMALL MID- LEVEL VORTICES EMANATING FROM MEXICO WILL PROPAGATE
NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THESE WEAK IMPULSES WILL INTERACT WITH SOME GULF
MOISTURE AND SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WHERE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
KEBEDE/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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