904
FXUS02 KWBC 032020
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
420 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 06 2026 - 12Z WED JUN 10 2026
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
LATEST GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE BETTER CLUSTERED FOR THE WEEKEND,
BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. A COMPOSITE MODEL/ENSEMBLE/MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE BLEND SEEMS TO PROVIDE A SOLID FORECAST BASIS.
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIMILAR LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION WITH MORE
THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED FLOW PROGRESSION INTO NEXT WEEK GIVEN
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY FLOW, ALBEIT WITH AMPLE SMALL-MID SCALE EMBEDDED
SYSTEM DIFFERENCES TO DECIPHER. A GUIDANCE BLEND FOCUS MORE TOWARD
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEMS TO BEST ADDRESS ISSUES CONSISTENT WITH
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM PREDICTABILITIES. THIS PLAN IS LESS USEFUL WITH
VARIED COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH
IMPACTS MAINLY FROM MARITIME STORM AND BACK-SIDE COASTAL RIP-TIDE
CONCERNS NOW THAT GUIDANCE SHIFTED THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH POSITION
OFFSHORE. WPC MEDIUM-RANGE SURFACE PROGS WERE MANUAL ADJUSTED TO
SOLIDIFY SYSTEM ORGANIZATION CONSISTENT WITH SUPPORT. THIS OVERALL
FORECAST STRATEGY OFFERS GOOD WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY THAT REMAINS
BROADLY IN LINE OVER THE NATION WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHS WITH WEATHER FOCUSING SURFACE LOWS/FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WILL STEADILY FEED INLAND INTO AN UNSETTLED NORTHWEST/WEST
THIS WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK, WITH EJECTING ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA. SPC OFFERS
SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY
AND A DAY 5/SUNDAY WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (ERO) MARGINAL THREAT
AREA IS SHOWN WITH SYSTEM EMERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ENERGY WILL MEANWHILE LIFT SLOWLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND SHEAR OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY-
MID NEXT WEEK TO FOCUS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION WITH
LOCAL HEAVY RAINS/RUNOFF CONCERNS. THE MOST ORGANIZED HEAVY
RAIN/REPEAT ACTIVITY/RUNOFF THREAT SEEMS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND WHERE WPC ERO
MARGINAL RISK AREAS REMAIN IN PLACE. THE THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF
THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED AS DETAILS BECOME
CLEARER CLOSER TO THE EVENT. A HOT SUMMERTIME UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES/SETTLES DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. WITH AMPLE
ROUNDING UPPER ENERGY DIGGING TO THE LEE TO CARVE AN AMPLIFIED EAST
COAST TO WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH WITH COASTAL LOW POTENTIAL.
KEBEDE/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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