977
FXUS02 KWBC 040737
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
337 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
VALID 12Z SUN JUN 07 2026 - 12Z THU JUN 11 2026
..OVERVIEW
SHORTWAVE ENERGY, RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE EAST, WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORM AND
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
PERSIST BENEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVER THE EAST. MEANWHILE,
A PERIOD OF MEAN TROUGHING ENSUES IN THE WEST, BRINGING RAINFALL TO
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
REVOLVES AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH.
SPECIFICALLY THE AMPLITUDE OF IT, AND WHETHER IT SPLITS INTO
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THE GFS IS FAVORED IN THE
BLEND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SINCE IT CLUSTERS WELL WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS, PARTICULARLY AROUND THE WEST COAST TROUGH, WHILE
ALSO PROVIDING MISSING DETAIL THAT IS WASHED OUT BY THE ENSEMBLES.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROPAGATING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. A DAY 4 MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN PLACE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA, MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. THE THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, ALBEIT MARGINAL AS WELL, SHIFTS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY, DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S..
A PAIR OF DEEP MID-LEVEL LOWS WILL BRING RAINFALL TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BEFORE SPREADING MOISTURE,
SUPPORTED BY THE SECOND REINFORCING LOW, INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD
STALL OUT ALONG SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND PRODUCE HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DUE TO CONTINUOUS
DIFFLUENT FLOW GENERATING DEEP WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION
NEXT WEEK. A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE EAST WILL PROMOTE AVERAGE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST. WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COULD LEAD TO MODERATE-
TO-MAJOR (LEVELS 2-3) HEAT RISK IMPACTS FOR THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION.
KEBEDE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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