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FXUS06 KWBC 041901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JUNE 04 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 10 - 14 2026
THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE
6-10 DAY MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN. BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND
WIDESPREAD TROUGHING IS PREDICTED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH POLAR REGION, WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND WIDESPREAD RIDGING FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. AT HIGH LATITUDES, A CLOSED-OFF
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE ARCTIC
OCEAN AND ALASKA, WITH THIS FEATURE FAVORED TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WEAK TROUGHING IN THE FULL HEIGHT FIELD CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE WEST COAST OF
THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, AND A STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGE IS PREDICTED FROM EAST-CENTRAL CANADA
SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CONUS. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS PREDICTED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
IS FORECAST NORTH OF HAWAII, WITH NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF
THE CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD, STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE PREDICTED FROM
EAST-CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
CONUS, AND THE PREDOMINANCE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES
OF 70-80% ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
WEST, CONSISTENT WITH MOST FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF A
PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS, WHILE SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
TILTS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. OVER THE SUBTROPICS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY'S MIDSECTION, ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND THE GULF COAST. WIDESPREAD GULF MOISTURE INFLOW INTERACTING WITH ANY WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FAVORS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHANCES (40-50%) FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST, AND RELATIVELY DRY CLIMATOLOGIES RESULT IN
A SIMILAR INCREASE IN ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AN AREA OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS DEPICTED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, BEING LOCATED CLOSER TO THE PREDICTED AREA OF
MAXIMUM POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AS WELL AS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST,
DOWNSTREAM OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE.
IN THE ALASKA DOMAIN, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE
STATE OF ALASKA, DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH
AS IT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BASED ON AUTOMATED AND ERFCON PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS, WITH A
BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE PRECIPITATION MODEL GUIDANCE.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 12 - 18 2026
THE ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY ON
THE 8-14 DAY MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME VARIATIONS
FORECAST IN BOTH AMPLITUDE AND PHASE. IN THE ALASKA DOMAIN, THE THREE ENSEMBLE
MEANS PREDICT A WEAKENING TROUGH OVER NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE, WITH THE CMCE FEATURING THE SHALLOWEST TROUGH. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA. THE ECENS AND CMCE FORECAST A NEAR-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE
LOWER 48 STATES, A WEAK TROUGH IS FAVORED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST,
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS. NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
NORTHEAST.
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOWER 48, BASED ON WIDESPREAD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS STRONGLY SUPPORTED
BY THE REFORECAST-CALIBRATED AND AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, LIKELY CONNECTED TO
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION FAVORED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA WHILE NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE REST OF THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE INDICATED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE VICINITY OF THE ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE REASONING BEHIND THE WIDESPREAD WEAK TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE
EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF DRIER-THAN-NORMAL
CONDITIONS IS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST. MUCH OF
ALASKA IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED TO RECEIVE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, CONSISTENT
WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, BASED ON THE ERFCON AND AUTOMATED
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AN OVERALL INCREASE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN,
TEMPERATURE, AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS DURING WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20140523 - 20010607 - 20170606 - 19910606 - 20230604
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20230604 - 19910607 - 20140524 - 20170605 - 20250525
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 10 - 14 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 12 - 18 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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