027
FXUS01 KWBC 041947
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 PM EDT THU JUN 04 2026
VALID 00Z FRI JUN 05 2026 - 00Z SUN JUN 07 2026
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
...UNSEASONABLE WARMTH SPREADS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND...
...THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. A
PERSISTENT CORRIDOR OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GULF WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE AND PASSING
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS SETUP FAVORS REPEATED ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WHICH CAN
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY, SOILS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THEREFORE, THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA, IOWA, AND WESTERN ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY. TEXAS INTO NEW
MEXICO WILL ALSO SEE A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TOMORROW AS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT. LOW WATER CROSSINGS OF WEST TEXAS INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY AND THE BURN SCARS OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. ON SATURDAY, A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT THE HAZARDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. AS FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER WILL ENHANCE TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT NEARS THE REGION
AND INTERACTS WITH A UNSTABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS WHERE STORMS
ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR STRUCTURES AND CLUSTERS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE
PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST.
INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED STORMS TO LIKELY REACH
SEVERE LIMITS. A SLIGHT RISK IS POSTED FROM OHIO INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK. BACK TO THE WEST, STORMS ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO FORM FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT.
ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN,
COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND INCREASING WIND GUSTS
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT, WILL CREATE FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK
IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED FOR TOMORROW AND A CRITICAL FIRE RISK FOR THE
WEEKEND, ACCORDING TO SPC. AVOID BURNING AND LISTEN TO LOCAL
OFFICIALS.
WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S., TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HEATRISK WILL APPROACH THE MODERATE RISK ON FRIDAY
WITH SPOTTY MAJOR RISK ON SATURDAY. TAKE BREAKS AND STAY HYDRATED
IF ENJOYING THE WEEKEND ! THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM
FOR JUNE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 100-110 F IN THE
DESERTS TO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE
CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS WILL SEE THE MOST ANOMALOUS WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S BY THE WEEKEND.
SOME MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE. MEANWHILE, A UPPER-LEVEL
LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S OVER THE NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND.
OUDIT/WILDER
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