088
FXUS01 KWBC 051939
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2026
VALID 00Z SAT JUN 06 2026 - 00Z MON JUN 08 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS, AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/ HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST FOR THE WEEKEND...
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD OFF THE GULF OF
AMERICA WILL HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS
EVENING, FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA AS STORMS RE-FIRE AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL
YESTERDAY, RAISING THE RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. GOING INTO
TOMORROW, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CENTERED AROUND
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROUND A WESTERN
TROUGH, PRESENT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY, AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ENABLE LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS.
FARTHER SOUTH, THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL ALSO BE UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE GULF
FUELS ABUNDANT TROPICAL RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
PONDING COULD RESULT OVER LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS. ON SUNDAY,
THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE RED
RIVER VALLEY TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
INCLUDING THE HILLY OZARKS. SIMILAR INGREDIENTS OVER THE RED RIVER
ON SATURDAY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AN INCH TO TWO INCH
HOURLY RAIN RATES MAY FACILITATE THE RISKS OF FLASH FLOODING.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SPARK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OHIO EARLIER IN THE DAY THAT PROGRESS
TOWARDS PENNSYLVANIA INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN THE CITIES ALONG THE 95 CORRIDOR BY THE EVENING. ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MIXED STORM MODES OF STORM
CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS THAT WILL BRING THE THREATS OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, STRONG WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS
WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IS HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OVER 80 MPH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MONTANA, WYOMING, AND THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST FOR A
BROAD SWATH OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. A
STRONG TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA WILL PROMOTE WINDS
GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-20 % RANGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE IN THE WEST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION, BUT THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND
STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER.
SUMMER TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE FELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE EAST COAST. EXPECT AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S FROM COLORADO TO MINNESOTA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ANYWHERE FROM 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR EARLY JUNE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODERATE AND SCATTERED MAJOR
HEATRISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT WILL
NEED TO PRECAUTIONS FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS. AHEAD OF THE STORMS
TOMORROW, THE NORTHEAST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE
90S, WHICH WILL ALSO BRING MODERATE TO ISOLATED MAJOR HEATRISK. ON
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA WILL
REACH THE MIDDLE 90S WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE. MAJOR HEATRISK
IS SHADED FOR THE REGION. STAY HYDRATED AND AVOID ACTIVITY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
WILDER
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