329
FXUS02 KWBC 072000
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VALID 12Z WED JUN 10 2026 - 12Z SUN JUN 14 2026
...SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MIDWEEK
AND SHIFT INTO THE EAST COAST LATE WEEK...
..SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
..OVERVIEW
AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A FRONT FARTHER EASTWARD, PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST MIDWEEK. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE WEEK TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, A MEAN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE OF THE SEASON IN THE
CENTRAL U.S. MIDWEEK BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE TREND TOWARD A FASTER EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS
CONTINUED WITH THIS MORNING'S MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS TREND CONTINUES
TO PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON CONSOLIDATING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A BETTER-DEFINED
COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKER EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
AND TRAILING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FASTER
FRONTAL MOTION CONTINUES TO HASTEN THE TIMING OF THE HEAT AS WELL
AS THE PRE- FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES INTO THE MIDWEST.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A TROPICAL CYCLONE
CIRCULATION TO TRACK CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA, LEADING TO
INFLATED QPFS FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE NBM. ALTHOUGH THE
12Z GFS HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK FARTHER WEST, THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN EXCLUDED IN THE COMPOSITION OF THE QPF FIELD FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.
A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN, GEFS MEAN, AND THE EC-
AIFS WAS USED TO COMPOSE THE QPF. THE PROGNOSTIC CHARTS WERE
LIKEWISE BASED ON THE COMPOSITE BLEND OF EC/EC MEAN, CMC/CMC MEAN,
AND GEFS/GFS WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS EXCLUDED FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO MIDWEEK,
AHEAD OF THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. TROUGH. THE LEAD COLD FRONTS
TRAILING FROM THE LOW CENTER WILL HELP FOCUS CONVECTION AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND SHEAR. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER IS CALLING FOR A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DUE TO THIS POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING ALSO LOOKS TO BE A CONCERN. A MARGINAL RISK
IS MAINTAINED FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIALS. FARTHER SOUTH, RETURN FLOW IN THE FORM OF A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET COULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO EASTERN
KANSAS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EVOLUTION, STRONG ENERGY ALOFT FOR FORCING MAY BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. A SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE AND QPF
INCREASES MAY BE NECESSARY IN FUTURE CYCLES. INTO THURSDAY, THE
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, SPARKING ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS. A MARGINAL RISK STRETCHES FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE DAY 5/THURSDAY ERO. MORE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE TRAILING END OF THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL WITH A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
A WARM FRONT EDGING TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY MIDWEEK,
COMBINED WITH THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE FROM THE BROADER
RIDGE ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS, POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY. SO FAR THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW A 5
PERCENT CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY AS
THE SUPPORT ALOFT WEAKENS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND IN MUCH OF THE EAST.
FLORIDA CAN ALSO EXPECT DAILY, DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST AND MULTIPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
BRING COOLER CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST INTO
WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. INTO LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, THE DETAILS OF
THE TROUGH ARE MORE QUESTIONABLE, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.
THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. IS
EXPECTED TO BRING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT HEAT OF THE SUMMER BY MID-
TO LATE WEEK, AS TEMPERATURES SOAR 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE
THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY,
REACHING ITS PEAK BY FRIDAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST
BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING BY NEXT WEEKEND. SEE WPC'S KEY
MESSAGES FOR MORE. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
WILL LEAD TO SOME BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THAT REGION FOR
MIDWEEK, THEN SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MODERATING. THE
WEST COAST SHOULD SEE A WARMER TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT HOW WARM
THE REGION WILL GET IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES.
KONG/TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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