334
FXUS06 KWBC 081902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JUNE 08 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 18 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE, REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH ANOMALIES
EXCEEDING 150 METERS FOR THE PERIOD MEAN. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING ARE FORECAST OFF THE EAST COAST AND DOWN
INTO THE GULF OF AMERICA. IN ALASKA, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FAVORED ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED IN HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG BOTH THE WEST COAST AND EAST COAST
OF THE CONUS BENEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE REDUCED ACROSS THE EAST COAST
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING NEARING THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
OVER THE WEST, CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70% OVER PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE APPALACHIANS, EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST. IN ALASKA, WITH MID-LEVEL POSITIVE HEIGHTS, MUCH OF THE STATE IS
FAVORED TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. IN HAWAII, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE ARCHIPELAGO.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGING FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS, AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING
ENHANCED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY, THE STRONGEST
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND THE SURROUNDING REGION WITH CHANCES EXCEEDING 50%. HOWEVER, A BROAD SWATH
OF THE EASTERN U.S. IS FAVORED TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. IN ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MAINLAND, CONSISTENT WITH STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. NEAR TO
BELOW IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CLOSER TO
THE POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS OFFSET BY THE
LESS CONFIDENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 16 - 22 2026
DURING WEEK-2, THE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WITH TIME FROM THE WEST COAST, TO SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO FILL IN. THIS LEAVES A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS BY THE END OF WEEK-2. IN THE MEAN, MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS
FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC RELATIVE TO PRIOR FORECASTS. A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BUT IS RELATIVELY WEAK. NEAR
NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. IN
ALASKA, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS IS FAVORED BUT THERE IS WEAK
MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BRINGS STRONG
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY DURING WEEK-2. IN THE EAST, A WEAK
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE MAY BOOST TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK-2
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS LIKELY TO
BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE REGION DURING WEEK-2 AS A
WHOLE. IN ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN
MAINLAND AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED DURING WEEK-2.
A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN THE SOUTHWEST, THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS FOR AN EARLY GULF OF CALIFORNIA SURGE EVENT. TROPICAL STORM BORIS
RECENTLY FORMED NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AND A SECOND TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS FORMED NEAR NICARAGUA. ONE OR BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD HELP
TO ENHANCE MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST BY WEEK-2. THESE SHOULD BE
MONITORED AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACTS COULD INCLUDE DRY LIGHTNING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF
ALASKA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT 5, 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS ARE DIMINISHING WITH TIME AND CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED ON
HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES OVER TIME.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940617 - 20100523 - 20180611 - 20160613 - 20140525
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20140524 - 19950621 - 20180611 - 20070615 - 20060601
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 18 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN N A RHODE IS A A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 16 - 22 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page