608
FXUS06 KWBC 091922
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
3:00 PM EDT TUE JUNE 09 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MON JUN 15 2026 - FRI JUN 19 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH IS
FORECAST OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, PEAKING IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE PERIOD. MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH, ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST OFF THE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
ALASKA, PUNCTUATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. NEAR TO MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND ADJACENT
AREAS DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES NEAR
THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND IMMEDIATE GULF AND EAST COASTS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
MOST LIKELY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS AND ADJACENT AREAS, IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ANOMALOUS RIDGES JUST OFF
THE COAST. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60 PERCENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE NEARBY
RIDGE. IN CONTRAST, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTH COAST UNDERNEATH
PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW. A MODEST TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
INDICATED FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINLAND, AS WELL AS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR HAWAII UNDERNEATH PREDICTED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
AND CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH
PREDICTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR A BROAD AREA FROM THE EASTERN CONUS, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ALONG MUCH OF
THE ROCKIES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND ADJACENT AREAS, DUE TO POTENTIAL FRONTAL FORCING AND
ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. IN CONTRAST, A TILT TOWARD BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH,
WITHIN A PREDICTED COOL STABLE AIRMASS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS AND ADJACENT AREAS, ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOMALOUS RIDGING OFFSHORE. A MODEST TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED
ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY’S OUTLOOK.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR WED JUN 17 2026 - TUE JUN 23 2026
A TRANSITIONAL 500-HPA PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA AND
VICINITY DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AS THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFIES AS TIME
PROGRESSES SUCH THAT THE FLOW BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL BY THE END OF WEEK-2. AS THIS
TROUGH WEAKENS, ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, EARLY
RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA.
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RETROGRADING RIDGE, TRANSIENT WEAK TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF WEEK-2. TOWARD
THE END OF WEEK-2 MODELS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST NEAR OR OVER
HAWAII.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
DUE TO ANOMALOUS TROUGHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE AREA WHERE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY,
CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH. AS THIS TROUGH WEAKENS,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AS RIDGING
STRENGTHENS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA, UNDERNEATH ASSOCIATED ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND
VICINITY, DUE TO EARLY RIDGING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS REDUCED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRANSIENT TROUGHING NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA DUE TO
PREDICTED TROUGHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE, AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR HAWAII, DUE, IN PART, TO ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MOST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF A WEAKENING TROUGH
FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED ANOMALOUS
RIDGING. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MODESTLY FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED WEAKLY CYCLONIC
FLOW. A TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, DUE TO PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF MAINLAND
ALASKA DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED TRANSITIONAL PATTERN.
FORECASTER: HANDEL
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18, 2026
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20100523 - 20160613 - 20180611 - 19940617 - 20220614
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20140525 - 20100523 - 20180611 - 20030519 - 19940617
6-10 DAY TABLE FOR MON JUN 15 2026 - FRI JUN 19 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B N WYOMING B A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY TABLE FOR WED JUN 17 2026 - TUE JUN 23 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 - ON AFOS AS
NFDPMDMRD.
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