969
FXUS06 KWBC 101901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JUNE 10 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 16 - 20 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT A TRANSITIONAL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES, PEAKING IN INTENSITY
ON DAY 6. THEREAFTER, THE TROUGH WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT PIVOTS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. AS THIS TROUGH WEAKENS, ANOMALOUS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER TO THE
WEST, A SECOND TROUGH, INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN FALLING HEIGHTS ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. IN ITS WAKE, ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND EASTERN GREAT PLAINS, DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCE) FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
NEAR THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE EAST AND
GULF COASTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE
ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE MOST LIKELY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH TRANSIENT
RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN CONTRAST, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. A MODEST TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE
NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH
PREDICTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR A BROAD AREA FROM THE EASTERN CONUS, THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
(GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, RIO GRANDE VALLEY, WESTERN GULF COAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST, DUE TO POTENTIAL FRONTAL FORCING
AND ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. IN CONTRAST, A TILT TOWARD BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH,
WITHIN A PREDICTED COOL STABLE AIRMASS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS AND ADJACENT AREAS, ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOMALOUS RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A MODEST TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA, UNDERNEATH
PREDICTED CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW., ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A DRYING
TREND IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, AS ANOMALOUS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ARE INDICATED ACROSS HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT IN AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD OFFSET BY
UNCERTAINTIES SURROUNDING A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE THEREAFTER.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 18 - 24 2026
A TRANSITIONAL 500-HPA PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA AND
VICINITY DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AS THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAKENING TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
TROUGH QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFIES FURTHER AS TIME PROGRESSES SUCH THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL BY THE END OF WEEK-2. AS THIS TROUGH WEAKENS, ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THIS TROUGH IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
PROMINENT TODAY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS. CONVERSELY, STRONG
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD UPSTREAM OVER THE ALEUTIANS, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVERSPREADING MOST OF ALASKA AS TIME PROGRESSES. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
AND NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST NEAR OR OVER HAWAII.
WITH EARLY TROUGHING FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN, ENHANCED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS. AS THIS TROUGH WEAKENS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, UNDERNEATH ASSOCIATED ABOVE NORMAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. LATER IN THE PERIOD, ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
HOWEVER, ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ABSENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST COAST AND VICINITY, AS A TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR A SMALL AREA OF
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE, AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, DUE, IN PART, TO ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY,
NORTHEAST, AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEPARTING TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, SUPPORTING ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF
AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVERSELY,
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED ANOMALOUS RIDGING. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
ADJACENT SOUTHWEST, AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MAY ADVECT INCREASED MOISTURE
INTO THESE REGIONS. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS REPRESENTS A TWO CATEGORY CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY'S
OUTLOOK AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHEASTERN ALASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER OR NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
INDICATED FOR NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ONSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
PACIFIC. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA,
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS. A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED TRANSITIONAL PATTERN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980624 - 20100524 - 20220614 - 20160613 - 20180611
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20100523 - 20140525 - 19940617 - 20180611 - 20160614
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 16 - 20 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 18 - 24 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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