803
FXCA20 KWBC 111906
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
306 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 11 JUNE 2026 AT 1900 UTC:
ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION, THE MAIN AREA OF INTEREST IS THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
GUATEMALA, WHICH IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
ONLY DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE; THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FEATURES THAT
ARE COMBINING TO CAUSE THIS TROPICAL WAVE TO BE A VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCER. CONTRIBUTING TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS THE
VERY DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE CARIBBEAN WITH A LOW-LEVEL
JET, THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE, AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH, WHICH IS CENTERED JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO FUEL THE THUNDERSTORMS, AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
PERSISTENT UPWARD MOTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL CAUSE THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE TO BE FAIRLY SATURATED INTO THE MID-LEVELS, AS SHOWN BY
THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH SUGGESTS RH VALUES OF OVER 90% AT THE
700â€500 MB LEVEL. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH ALSO PROVIDE
PERSISTENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WHICH ALSO HELPS THE CONTINUOUS
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO
FRIDAY, RAINFALL TOTALS SURPASSING 100 MM ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOME
AREAS AFFECTED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE.
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, THERE ARE STILL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO, NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AND NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROPICAL WAVE. THEREFORE, SOUTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE REST OF TODAY, DECREASING SLIGHTLY ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND EVEN LESS ON SUNDAY.
THAT BEING SAID, THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND BECOME A CLOSED LOW BY THIS WEEKEND.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION COULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERNMOST MEXICO UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME RAINFALL POSSIBLY STARTING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY. WE WILL KEEP MONITORING THIS
SITUATION, BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE FORECAST
RAINFALL.
A FEW TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AS THE WAVES TRACK WEST. THIS MEANS THAT TODAY AND
TONIGHT, THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHY WILL CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER
VENEZUELA, TRACKING WEST WITH EACH PASSING DAY, REACHING COLOMBIA
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN OUT INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY
SUNDAY MORNING. EACH DAY, RAINFALL TOTALS COULD REACH 50 MM OR
HIGHER ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE PASSING
TROPICAL WAVES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS, THE RAINFALL PATTERN
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY ACTIVE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND GREATER ANTILLES,
THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL PATTERNS ARE GENERALLY CONFLUENT AND
WOULD NOT PROMOTE PARTICULARLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE
SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN THE
ISLANDS, THAT COULD OBSERVE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN, UP TO
AROUND 50 MM OR SO, EACH DAY, BUT THAT WOULD BE DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS, WHICH
WOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER LARGE AREAS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
TROPICAL WAVES:
SOF INIT 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12 14/00 14/12 15/00 15/12
17N 41W 44W 47W 50W 53W 57W 61W 65W 69W
7N 51W 54W 58W 61W 65W 67W 70W 74W 76W
15N 61W 64W 68W 73W 76W --- --- --- ---
12N 71W 73W 75W 77W 79W 81W 83W 86W 89W
20N 88W 91W 92W LOW LOW LOW --- --- ---
ALAMO...(WPC)
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