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FXUS06 KWBC 121902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JUNE 12 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 18 - 22 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, AND ARE CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF
MODEL STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL
BLEND INDICATES AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES
PREDICTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS).
ANOMALOUS RIDGING WITH ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE ALSO FORECAST OVER ALASKA. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA,
NEAR THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE EAST AND
GULF COASTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE
ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE MOST LIKELY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH TRANSIENT
RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN CONTRAST, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. A MODEST TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE
NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CONUS DUE TO THE
ANOMALOUS TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS AND POTENTIAL FRONTAL
FORCING AND ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR SMALL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. IN
CONTRAST, A TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS
RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A MODEST TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED FOR MOST OF NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. A DRYING TREND IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AS
ANOMALOUS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED ACROSS HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH A
NEARBY CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE, OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 20 - 26 2026
A TRANSITIONAL 500-HPA PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA AND
VICINITY DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AS THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAKENING TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
TROUGH QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFIES FURTHER AS TIME PROGRESSES SUCH THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL BY THE END OF WEEK-2. AS THIS TROUGH WEAKENS, ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM SOUTHEAST ALASKA. CONVERSELY, RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
BUILD UPSTREAM OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING SEA, WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
OVERSPREADING MOST OF ALASKA AS TIME PROGRESSES. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND NEAR
NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST NEAR OR OVER HAWAII.
WITH EARLY TROUGHING FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS TROUGH WEAKENS,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AS RIDGING
STRENGTHENS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA, UNDERNEATH ASSOCIATED ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS. LATER IN THE PERIOD, ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS, RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, DUE IN PART TO ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEPARTING ANOMALOUS TROUGH AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF DUE TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
CONVERSELY, SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHEASTERN ALASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER OR NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREDICTED
OVER THE ALEUTIANS. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED TRANSITIONAL
PATTERN.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980626 - 20220614 - 20230619 - 20120618 - 20010614
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980625 - 20230619 - 20140525 - 20120618 - 20180612
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 18 - 22 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 20 - 26 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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