281
FXUS01 KWBC 121913
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VALID 00Z SAT JUN 13 2026 - 00Z MON JUN 15 2026
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY IN PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...
...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI ON SATURDAY...
...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH TO END THE WEEKEND...
...HEAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND, WHILE THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS HOT...
AN ACTIVE END TO THE WEEK IS SET TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY, AS MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRING
CONSECUTIVE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
LEADING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES,
MIDWEST, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
ADVANCING STEADILY TOWARD THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST,
BRINGING A PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. AS SUCH, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD. CONCURRENTLY, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO FLOW NORTHWARD AND CONVERGE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
INITIATING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL CARRY A
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SPC HAS OUTLINED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WELL.
ON SATURDAY, A SECONDARY AND MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, REACHING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERSECT THE
SOUTHWARD-SLUMPING WARM FRONT, ESTABLISHING A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE WITHIN A WARM, MOIST, AND HIGHLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT REPEATED ROUNDS OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A RENEWED
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, PROMPTING THE SPC TO
OUTLINE AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER.
ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND ITS SURROUNDINGS. RAINFALL WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH AND
URBAN FLOODING; CONSEQUENTLY, A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR SATURDAY. TO END THE
WEEKEND, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD THE
EAST COAST AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RECOMMENCE, BRINGING A THREAT OF SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH PARTS OF TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE, A ROUND OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MONTANA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. MONSOONAL SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO EMERGE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER ON SATURDAY. THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN
HOT INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 110S AND 100S,
RESPECTIVELY. MEANWHILE, HEAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH RECORD-HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
REACHING INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER
EAST, HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBSIDING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY, WHILE THE SOUTH
REMAINS VERY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
BLANCO-ALCALA/KONG
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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