943
FXUS02 KWBC 130655
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 16 2026 - 12Z SAT JUN 20 2026
..BUILDING HEAT FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
..HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREATS OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE SOUTH
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE FORECAST CLUSTERING IS MUCH BETTER THAN AVERAGE,
BOLSTERING CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE LARGER
SCALE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES A HOT WEST/SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN
PLAINS RIDGE SHIFT OVER TIME AND PERIODIC DOWNSTREAM REINFORCEMENT
OVERTOP INTO A CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. MEAN TROUGH POSITION. THIS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD TREND MORE ZONAL LATER NEXT WEEK AS
INCOMING SHORTWAVE ENERGIES FLATTEN THE RIDGE WHILE DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH ENERGIES LIFT OUT. A COMPATIBLE MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN/MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE BLEND PROVIDES A SOLID FORECAST BASIS WITH
LINGERING SMALLER SCALE VARIANCE MITIGATED CONSISTENT WITH
INDIVIDUAL PREDICTABILITY. THIS SOLUTION IS IN LINE WITH THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AND OFFERS GREAT WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A WAVY FRONT WILL SETTLE AND TRAIL BACK FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS NEXT WEEK AND
PROVIDE A PROTRACTED FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEEP GULF/TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY WILL INTERACT
WITH THE GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONT TO POOL FUEL FOR AN
AMPLE DOWNPOUR/FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR THE
REPEAT/TRAINING OF ACTIVITY. THE WPC DAY 4/5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO) FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY HAVE MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
AREAS FOR A FLOODING POTENTIAL FOCUS OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES/VICINITY AND THIS THREAT MAY EXTEND LATER NEXT WEEK.
ELSEWHERE, A ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
MEANWHILE SLATED TO DEVELOP AND LINGER NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
ENERGETIC AND PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOWS/FRONTS DIG FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. A WPC DAY 5/WEDNESDAY ERO MARGINAL RISK AREA CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST WAS INTRODUCED. THREAT POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST
LATER NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEMS REFIRE ACTIVITY, BUT ALSO EXPAND FOCUS
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S./MID-SOUTH AND THE EAST/NORTHEAST U.S..
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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