453
FXUS01 KWBC 130812
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 13 2026 - 12Z MON JUN 15 2026
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST TO END THE WEEKEND...
...HEAT WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS MUCH COOLER AIR
SURGES INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TO END THE HEAT IN THE
EAST...
A SURGE OF COOL AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA IS WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COOL AIR MASS WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS THE COOL AIR MASS ADVANCES FORWARD AND PLOWS INTO
THE HOT AND HUMID AIR, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ERUPT AND EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES TO ACCOMPANY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION, LOCALLY A FEW INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS LEADING TO SLIGHT RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
MIDWEST, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOCUSING AROUND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI INTO TONIGHT. THESE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LOSE
INTENSITY BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THEY ADVANCE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
BY SUNDAY, A LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THROUGH LOWER GREAT LAKES.
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
SEND HEAT AND HUMIDITY UP THE EAST COAST ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL AID THE PRODUCTION OF
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO
THE NORTHEAST LATER ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WAVE. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS EPISODE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. BY MONDAY
MORNING, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AS THE REFRESHINGLY COOL AIR FROM CANADA WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. BY MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, A ROUND OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WESTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, MONSOONAL SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
LATER TODAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF
CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN HOT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 110S AND 100S,
RESPECTIVELY. ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, HEAT IS FORECAST TO
BUILD, WITH RECORD-HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE
80S AND LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST, THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WILL NOT BE AS HOT TODAY BEHIND A
LEADING FRONT. HOWEVER, THE SOUTH REMAINS HOT AND HUMID AS THE
FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE
SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
KONG
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