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FXUS06 KWBC 131902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT JUNE 13 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 19 - 23 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, AND ARE CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF
MODEL STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL
BLEND INDICATES AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES
PREDICTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS).
ANOMALOUS RIDGING WITH ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE ALSO FORECAST OVER ALASKA. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES, NEAR THE
PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE EAST AND GULF
COASTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE ABOVE
NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE MOST LIKELY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH TRANSIENT RIDGING
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN ALASKA ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS, WHILE
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE
NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CONUS DUE TO THE
ANOMALOUS TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS AND POTENTIAL FRONTAL
FORCING AND ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SUPPORTED BY MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. IN CONTRAST, A TILT TOWARD BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A MODEST TILT TOWARD
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR MOST OF NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. A
DRYING TREND IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AS ANOMALOUS RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED ACROSS HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY CLOSED
MID-LEVEL LOW.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 21 - 27 2026
A TRANSITIONAL 500-HPA PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA AND
VICINITY DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD AS THE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAKENING TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
TROUGH QUICKLY DE-AMPLIFIES FURTHER AS TIME PROGRESSES SUCH THAT THE FLOW
BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL BY THE END OF WEEK-2. AS THIS TROUGH WEAKENS, ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY THE PLAINS AND INTERIOR WEST. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM SOUTHEAST ALASKA. CONVERSELY, RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD UPSTREAM OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING SEA, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS OVERSPREADING MOST OF ALASKA AS TIME PROGRESSES. MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING AND NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST NEAR OR OVER HAWAII.
WITH EARLY TROUGHING FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS TROUGH WEAKENS,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEAR SUBTROPICAL
MID-LEVEL RIDGING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA,
UNDERNEATH ASSOCIATED ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. LATER IN THE PERIOD,
ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, RESULTING IN
INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE SOUTHERN AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO RISE AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
HAWAII, DUE IN PART TO ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEPARTING ANOMALOUS TROUGH AND ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF DUE TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TOOLS. CONVERSELY, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE GULF COAST,
MUCH OF THE WEST COAST, AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH
PREDICTED ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER OR NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH EXPECTED STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ALEUTIANS. A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII,
ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG ENSEMBLES, AND GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS FORECAST
TOOLS, OFFSET BY GENERALLY WEAKER SIGNALS OVERALL RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20130609 - 20010615 - 20190609 - 19980626 - 20220622
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980625 - 20120618 - 20230619 - 20140525 - 20130609
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 19 - 23 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 21 - 27 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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