895
FOUS30 KWBC 140012
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
812 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
DAY 1
VALID 01Z SUN JUN 14 2026 - 12Z SUN JUN 14 2026
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI, SOUTHEAST KANSAS, NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
01Z UPDATE: MODERATE RISK FROM PRIOR FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
THE CORE OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE QUAD
STATE INTERSECTION OF OK/KS/AR/MO OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOIST PROFILES
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL FUEL
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS EVENING WITH THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PROGRESSION ALREADY UNDERWAY FOR
AREAS FURTHER NORTH. MUCAPE OFF THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A
CORRIDOR OF 4000-6000 J/KG RUNNING THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN KS DOWN
INTO NORTHEASTERN OK WHICH HAS BEEN TARGETED AS THE PRIMARY AXIS OF
HEAVY PRECIP FROM THE LATEST HI-RES. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GRASP
THE SURFACE FEATURES PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH THE RECENT 22Z HRRR
FINALLY COMING INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ON
INITIALIZATION. EXPECTATION IS FOR INCREASED SURFACE TO BL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO ENSUE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AS A
SHORTWAVE MIGRATES EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIGNALS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE BEEN STEADY OVER EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO, BUT
TRENDS FOR A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE CELL MOTIONS HAVE PUT PORTIONS OF
OK/AR IN PLAY FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS WITH THE LATTER AREA (AR)
LIKELY TO SEE SOME OVERLAP AFTER PREVIOUS RAINFALL THIS PERIOD.
AREA FFG'S ARE GENERALLY 1-1.5"/HR WITH 1.5-2"/3-HRS, BOTH
THRESHOLDS THAT WILL LIKELY BE BREACHED IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH
MAJORITY OF HI-RES SIGNALING 2-3"/HR RATES LIKELY IN THE STRONGEST
CELLS OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. HREF PROBS CONTINUE TO PIN
>60% PROBABILITIES FOR >2" AND >3" OVER THE SOUTHEAST KS AND
SOUTHWEST MO REGION, A TESTAMENT TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THAT ZONE
BEING THE PRIMARY TARGET FOR THE PERIOD. THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED THE
MDT RISK WITH ONLY SOME TRIMMING OF THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AS MODEL
TRENDS HAVE GIVEN ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO REMOVE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MO FOR THE MDT.
SLGT RISK WAS EXPANDED SOUTHEAST OVER THE MEMPHIS AREA AND
SURROUNDS AS THE CURRENT MCS PROPAGATION CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE
AREA WITH FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST TN. IN ANY CASE, THE RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS CALLED FOR A SHORT TERM UPGRADE TO A SLGT RISK
TO CORRELATE WITH WHAT IS HAPPENING CURRENTLY.
KLEEBAUER
DAY 2
VALID 12Z SUN JUN 14 2026 - 12Z MON JUN 15 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS FROM
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
20Z UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TX WITH SOME
MORE SUPPORT FOR FARTHER SOUTH QPF. ALSO INCLUDED THE MID-
ATLANTIC IN THE LARGER MARGINAL OUTLINE WITH THE AREA TO THE NORTH,
AND NUDGED THAT REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND AS WELL PER SOME HIGHER QPF
IN THE MODELS. LASTLY, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
OVER FL, EXPECT ANOTHER CHANGE OF SEA-BREEZE-DRIVEN STORMS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA, WHERE A MARGINAL RISK WAS ADDED.
FRACASSO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW:
A SLOW-MOVING BUT POTENT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH INTO ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY. THE MCS THAT CAUSED THE
MODERATE RISK FLOODING IN MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY RAINS THAT ELEVATE NORTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SLIGHT RISK
CATEGORY. ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING, AND WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY.
SINCE THE FORWARD/SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HEAVIES RAINS WILL
SLOW AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY, SOME AREAS MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
WEAKENING BUT STILL HEAVY RAINS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AS PWATS RISE AS HIGH AS 2.25 INCHES.
THUS, ANY CELLS PRODUCING RAINS WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE DOING SO
EFFICIENTLY. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THIS AREA MAY SEE
ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WITH THE STRONG FRONT STALLED
OUT IN THE AREA, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AS THE
STALLED OUT FRONT ALONE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING DUE TO FLOW ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WEAKENING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FURTHER WEST INTO WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RUNNING INTO SOME OF THE SAME GULF MOISTURE AS FURTHER EAST SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
CLUSTERS FROM THE AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE EVENING.
TOPOGRAPHIC ASSISTANCE BY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND OTHER
RANGES MAY LOCALLY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS, WHERE ANY BURN SCARS MAY
TAKE OVER AT RAISING THE FLASH FLOODING RISK. THE SAME FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST. WHILE THE
STORMS WILL BE RACING IN THESE AREAS, THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE STORMS IN THEIR
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR THESE
AREAS WAS EXPANDED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH NORTHERN
MAINE. THE MARGINAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WAS SPLIT INTO
2 AREAS WITH THIS UPDATE. ONE FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM DC TO
PHILLY, AND A SECOND FOR THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA. ABUNDANT
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN THESE AREAS WILL SUPPORT FAST-MOVING BUT
TRAINING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. DUE TO
ONGOING DROUGHT, THE THREAT REALLY IS FOCUSED ON THE URBAN AREAS
WHERE FFGS ARE LOWER. THE INTERMEDIATE RURAL AREAS WERE REMOVED
WITH THIS UPDATE AS ANY TRAINING STORMS THAT OCCUR OVER MOST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL BE OVER RURAL AND FLOOD-RESISTANT/FLAT AREAS.
WEGMAN
DAY 3
VALID 12Z MON JUN 15 2026 - 12Z TUE JUN 16 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
..SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TO THE
RIO GRANDE WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL ON
MONDAY. UPPER JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA WILL LIE
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY,
LEAVING TEXAS AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR TO
THE SOUTH OF A FRONT. PWATS TO 2.25 INCHES WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
DUE IN PART TO A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OUT OF COASTAL MEXICO AS
WELL AS ENERGY EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COMBINATION OF THAT
FORCING, AMPLE MOISTURE, AND A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED HEAVIER RAIN AND SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. FFG VALUES DECREASE AWAY FROM THE COAST, AND HIGHLIGHTED
THESE AREAS FOR NOW (DESPITE THE RECENT DRYNESS WHICH CAN ACT TO
INCREASE RUNOFF), IN AN ARC FROM LAREDO TO AUSTIN TO COLLEGE
STATION (THEN CONTINUING INTO LOUISIANA LIKE THE PREVIOUS ERO).
ECMWF EFI QPF HIGHLIGHTS SOT NEAR 1 WITHIN THIS SLIGHT RISK
OUTLINE, SUGGESTING EVEN A HIGHER-END SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS NEAR
THE TX/LA BORDER BUT PERHAPS ALSO NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. NEW 12Z CSU
FIRST GUESS ERO ALSO SHOWED AN EXPANSION OF THE SLIGHT, IN LINE
WITH THE UPDATED CHANGES. MODEL QPFS SHOW SOME 4-8" AMOUNTS (AND
SOME >10" AMOUNTS) IN THIS 24-HR PERIOD BUT THE PLACEMENT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH TEXAS IS UNCERTAIN (NOTING THE AI GUIDANCE IS
CLOSER TO THE COAST). POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FURTHER UPGRADE TO A
MODERATE RISK SOMEWHERE IN THIS REGION BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE
CAM GUIDANCE IN FUTURE UPDATES.
FRACASSO
DAY 4 AND DAY 5
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 16 2026 - 12Z THU JUN 18 2026
...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHEAST...
20Z UPDATE: GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS PERTINENT FOR A SLGT
RISK THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WITH EMPHASIS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. RECENT ENSEMBLE QPF
DISTRIBUTION HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THE CORRIDOR OF
HEAVIER PRECIP LEADING TO AGREEMENT WITH THE ML OUTPUTS FROM THE
EC-AIFS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE OVERLAP, INCREASING
FAVOR IN FLASH FLOOD PROSPECTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LA WITH THOSE
AREAS BETWEEN THE LOWER SABINE TO LAFAYETTE WITHIN THE TARGET FOR
THE D4 TIME FRAME. THE SLGT RISK INHERITED WAS EXTENDED WEST TO
REFLECT THE AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z ENSEMBLE/ML OUTPUTS.
D5 CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY ACTIVE WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MATERIALIZING WITH INCREASING FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS IN-OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO POINTS EAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. CONSENSUS ON QPF BEING ROBUST IS
SOLID, BUT EXACT PLACEMENT IS A BIT FLUID CURRENTLY AS MODELS ARE
STILL TRYING TO DISTINGUISH EXACT PLACEMENT DOWNSTREAM OF
INITIATION OVER THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY.
CONSIDERING THE FORWARD PROPAGATION UNCERTAINTY, ELECTED TO
MAINTAIN THE MRGL RISK WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTING ON THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PERIPHERY TO REFLECT QPF ORIENTATION AND PQPF 90TH
PERCENTILE FORECAST OF >1.5" OF PRECIPITATION. AN UPGRADE IN FUTURE
FORECASTS IS LIKELY, BUT THERE IS STILL TIME FOR FURTHER ASSESSMENT
AND DEVELOPING A BETTER CONSENSUS.
KLEEBAUER
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..
THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL SEE TWO PARTICULAR THREATS
FOR FLASH FLOODING. FIRST, ALONG THE GULF COAST, A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS BOTH ON DAY 4
(TUESDAY) AND DAY 5 (WEDNESDAY). THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
TUESDAY'S FLASH FLOOD THREAT GIVEN BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IN
PLACEMENT OF QPF AND THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING STRONG
ENOUGH TO HELP TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2.0" IN MANY CASES AS WELL, ALLOWING DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. SOILS
WILL BE MORE SATURATED IN WAKE OF MONDAY'S THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL,
MAKING THE REGION MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. THE FORECAST
REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY (DAY 4) WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE INHERITED MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISKS TO MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLE THE LATEST WPC QPF. BY WEDNESDAY (DAY 5) THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AND THE SOURCE OF LIFT AT THE
SURFACE WILL WEAKEN. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, WHICH AT BY
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE DEALT WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. A MARGINAL RISK WAS INTRODUCED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
FROM THE HOUSTON METRO ON EAST TO THE FL PANHANDLE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AROUND THE MORE URBANIZED COMMUNITIES
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
FARTHER NORTH, WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY FROM THE MIDWEST
ON EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY. A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE HEALTHY UPPER-
LEVEL ASCENT ALOFT TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE.
MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL DIRECT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. NAEFS SHOWS AN
IMPRESSIVE IVT FOR MID-JUNE THAT SURPASSES 750 KG/M/S OVER THE
EASTERN CORN BELT THAT WILL PROVIDE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT YET AS TO WHICH LOCATIONS ARE MOST
FAVORED TO WITNESS THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FAST STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD ALSO HELP TO LIMIT RESIDENCY TIMES OF DEVELOPING
STORMS. THAT SAID, PWS RANGING BETWEEN 1.75-2.0" WILL BE THE NORM
LATE WEDNESDAY WITH STORMS LIKELY CONTAINING EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES. A MARGINAL RISK WAS INTRODUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE MIDDLE MS RIVER ON EAST
INTO THE OH VALLEY.
MULLINAX
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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