297
FOUS30 KWBC 141601
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1201 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
DAY 1
VALID 16Z SUN JUN 14 2026 - 12Z MON JUN 15 2026
...THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL AS FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
A VERY SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AN IMPRESSIVELY MOISTURE-
LADEN AIR MASS IS IN PLACE OVER TEXAS AND MUCH OF THE GULF COAST IN
GENERAL. DECAYING MCS NEAR THE ARKLATEX WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING
IN ITS WAKE. FOR THE AFTERNOON, PLENTIFUL SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
GULF INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD BUT LARGELY
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE HOUSTON AND
SAN ANTONIO METROS NORTH. ANYWHERE CELL MERGERS OR LOCALIZED
TRAINING FEATURES DEVELOP, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH URBAN AREAS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE.
A HIGHER-END SLIGHT RISK IS NOTED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTRY WHERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THOSE
AREAS. FOR THE HILL COUNTRY, THE MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE
TONIGHT, AS MERGING STORMS MAY YIELD AN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH
POTENTIAL RATES OF 2"/HR (20-60% CHANCE FROM THE 12Z HREF
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBS). THE STORMS WILL RUN INTO INCREASING RESISTANCE
TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ, WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN
THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORMS AS THE TRAVERSE THE HILL COUNTRY.
DUE TO THE FLASHY NATURE OF THE TERRAIN IN THE HILL COUNTRY, THE
HIGHER-END SLIGHT WAS WARRANTED. BACK INTO NEW MEXICO, AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS COULD INTERACT WITH BOTH THE TERRAIN FEATURES IN
THE AREA, SUCH AS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, URBAN EL PASO, AND ANY
BURN SCARS IN THE AREA.
..NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
A SLIGHT RISK IS MAINTAINED FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SAME
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HAVE A
MUCH EASIER TIME PUSHING EASTWARD IN NORTHERN AREAS, AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CANADA PUSHES FREQUENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. DESPITE THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE FRONT, A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY ADVECT NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AIDED BY INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
WITH TIME AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE MOISTURE SURGE WILL ALSO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY,
WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1,000 J/KG EXPECTED ON AVERAGE, AND
VALUES UP TO 2,000 IN SOME AREAS, INCLUDING SOUTHEASTERN VT. THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS FAST-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE TRAINING STORMS WILL IMPACT RECENTLY HARD HIT
AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHERE SOILS ARE WETTER THAN NORMAL
GOING INTO THIS EVENT (FFG VALUES AROUND 1-2"/HR). WHILE THERE'S
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW STRONG THE STORMS WILL GET, THE LIKELIHOOD
THEY WILL TRAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PLUME OF GREATEST RAINFALL
IS HIGH. THE STORMS WILL TRAIN OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. THE HILLY TERRAIN HERE CAN EXACERBATE RAINFALL RATES AND
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN NARROWER RIVER/STREAM
VALLEYS.
..MID-ATLANTIC
MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC DUE TO THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS FEEDING ON THE
SAME MOISTURE PLUME THAT WILL ADVANCE INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN
AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
GREATER.
..FLORIDA
ON THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA, SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS WITH THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES) OVER THE STATE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE STORMS WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY, SO
MERGERS WILL POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MORE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN, THOUGH ALL STRONG CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN.
FRACASSO/WEGMAN
DAY 2
VALID 12Z MON JUN 15 2026 - 12Z TUE JUN 16 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
AS FAR AS CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST GO, THE DAY 2 FORECAST
IS THE MOST SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL
CONTINUE MAKING PAINFULLY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH TOWARDS THE WESTERN
GULF COAST ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL ACTUALLY FURTHER INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THE STORMS WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH AS THEY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS.
THE MCS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL CONTINUE SOUTH
INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY. THIS MCS WILL WEAKEN BY MIDDAY, ONLY TO BE REPLACED WITH
FAR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TEXAS. THESE STORMS WILL FORM AS THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND
PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY FROM THE GULF ADVECTS NORTH AND WEST INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE STORMS FROM ANY MORNING MCS WILL QUICKLY
EVOLVE INTO A SLOW MOVING LINE OF STORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO
MISSISSIPPI DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RUNNING
INTO THE VERY SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ROUGHLY NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER.
FOR SOME AREAS OF EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS, NORTHERN LOUISIANA, AND
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI, THERE MAY BE NO STOP BETWEEN ANY EARLY MORNING
RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT MCS AND THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT QUICKLY
BLOSSOMS ALONG THE FRONTAL INTERFACE. HIGH FFGS AND SOMEWHAT DRIER
THAN NORMAL SURFACE SOILS GOING IN TO THE DAY 2 (DEPENDING ON WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY), SHOULD WORK TO PRECLUDE MODERATE RISK LEVEL
COVERAGE OF FLASH FLOODING, BUT THE WHOLE AREA IS IN A HIGHER-END
SLIGHT AND A MODERATE RISK UPGRADE IS POSSIBLE WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
FOR SOUTH TEXAS, THE PRIMARY FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR THE PERIOD
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE IN THIS REGION, THERE WILL BE A LACK OF FORCING, DUE
TO THE DISTANT COLD FRONT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY, UNTIL THE ARRIVAL
OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY AT
LEAST IN PART THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER EAST PACIFIC
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA. AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS, IT WILL NOT ONLY
INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE, BUT WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING TO ORGANIZE THE STORMS INTO SLOW-MOVING LINES
OF TRAINING CELLS THAT TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME UP THE RIO
GRANDE. PWATS WILL BE 4 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL, EXCEEDING 2.5 INCHES AT
TIMES, SO ANY AND ALL STORMS WILL HAVE IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. INSTABILITY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COMMENSURATE WITH SUCH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN.
A MODERATE RISK MAY ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN SOUTH TEXAS
SHOULD COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH MORE CAMS COVERAGE AND
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON DAY 1/TODAY.
WEGMAN
DAY 3
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 16 2026 - 12Z WED JUN 17 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST...
..SOUTH TEXAS
THE ENTIRE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY WILL
BE THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH
LIKELY IN PART THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OF FORMER EAST PACIFIC
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN ALRIGHT
AGREEMENT, BUT IT COULD CERTAINLY BE BETTER. THE EC IS FAR SLOWER
WITH ITS MOVEMENT THAN THE GFS. FOR THIS PERIOD, THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE TWO IS SMALL ENOUGH THAT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
CONFIDENCE IN THE SUBSEQUENT METEOROLOGICAL EFFECTS. ESSENTIALLY
THE UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH CRISTINA WILL COMBINE WITH
EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
GULF, TO RAISE PWATS TO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
FOR SOME AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST.
WITH THE DISTURBANCE IN PLACE, AND STRENGTHENING WITH TIME, THIS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED INTO SLOW-MOVING BANDS OF HEAVY-
RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS WILL EXCEED 2.5 INCHES ALONG
THE COAST, WITH SOME AREAS EVEN NEARING 2.75 INCHES. THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SLOW-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BE KEY AS TO WHO SEES THE
MOST RAIN, AS THE STORMS RIDE NORTH OFF THE GULF AND INTO COAST TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION WILL SPREAD WEST ACROSS ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, RIGHT TO THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH EXCEPTIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS IN SPOTS,
WITH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD LIKELY EXCEEDING 3
INCHES (WITH MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS) FROM ESSENTIALLY
GALVESTON SOUTH AND WEST. AT THE MOMENT, THE HEAVIEST TOTALS LOOK
TO CONCENTRATE FOR THE PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS FROM CORPUS CHRISTI
SOUTH AND WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE, BUT AGAIN ANY CHANGE IN TRACK OR
SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW AND ANY POSSIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL
CHANGE THIS DRAMATICALLY. REGARDLESS, CONSIDERING THE OVERLAP FROM
THE DAY 2/MONDAY PERIOD, SHOULD THIS RAINFALL FORECAST REMAIN
SIMILAR WITH FUTURE UPDATES, A MODERATE RISK WILL BE NECESSARY AS
FFGS IN THIS AREA WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY ARE NOW. FURTHER,
THERE WILL BE URBAN FLOODING IMPACTS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS
CHRISTI AS WELL.
..LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTH
UP THE COAST FROM SOUTH TEXAS, THE PLUME OF ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT THAT WILL
REMAIN SET UP FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND INTO
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. THE GOOD NEWS FOR TUESDAY IS THAT THE LIKELY
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS/MEXICO WILL
MAKE FOR DOWNSTREAM RIDGING, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM HOUSTON EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. THAT SAID, THE FRONT
WILL STILL BE A POTENT FORCING FEATURE, AND TRAINING STORMS
TRACKING EAST PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL STILL POSE A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING PROBLEM. THUS, THE INHERITED SLIGHT FOR THIS REGION
REMAINS IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LIKELY MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE HYDROLOGY AS THIS WILL BE THE SECOND OR THIRD DAY
(DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU ARE) OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY OFFSET THE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FASTER FORWARD SPEED OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD ALSO RE-INCREASE THE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR
THIS REGION AND ALSO PUSH SOME AREAS CLOSE TO MODERATE RISK
TERRITORY WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
WEGMAN
DAY 4 AND DAY 5
VALID 12Z WED JUN 17 2026 - 12Z FRI JUN 19 2026
...THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, MID-SOUTH, AND GULF COAST
ON DAY 4 AND DAY 5...
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR ACTIVE
DAYS 4-5 TIMEFRAME FROM THE GULF COAST ON NORTH TO THE OH VALLEY
AND AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SOUTHEAST TX AND
PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS.
ON DAY 4 (WED.) A ROBUST 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SPAWN A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE NOSE OF A 500MB JET STREAK.
ECMWF SAT PERCENTILES SHOW SHOW MSLP VALUES THAT ARE AMONG THE
LOWEST IN THE CFSR DATABASE (1979-2009) OVER THE MIDWEST BY 00Z
THURSDAY THAT CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. 850MB WINDS WILL BE ROARING TO THE TUNE OF 50 KTS AND
POTENTIALLY STRONGER THAN THAT OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE COMBINATION
OF HIGHLY ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST PAIRED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SOUTH OF BERMUDA WILL FORCE GULF MOISTURE TO RACE
NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND ON EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY.
WITH PWS ALSO ABOVE THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE, STORMS MAY
BE FAST MOVERS, BUT THEY WILL CONTAIN EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES. A SLIGHT RISK WAS INTRODUCED FROM THE MS VALLEY TO AS
FAR EAST AS CENTRAL OH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASED FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. FARTHER SOUTH, THE POOL OF ANOMALOUS PWS ACCOMPANIED BY
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY IVT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL KEEP THE
TX COAST AT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WHILE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS, THE REGION WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO SEE
SOILS GROW MORE SENSITIVE AFTER MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN PRIOR TO
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT RISK WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE LOWER AND CENTRAL
TX GULF COAST, ALIGNING WITH WHERE THE HEAVIEST WPC QPF IS LOCATED.
FOR DAY 5 (THURS.), BETWEEN THE NAEFS AND ECMWF SATS, THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITHIN THE 1000-500MB LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF
ARE REMARKABLE WITH THE ENTIRE LAYER'S SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
AVERAGING AT LEAST THE 97.5 CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE. THIS MEANS
THE GULF IS WIDE OPEN FOR BUSINESS, NOT JUST WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS AS WELL. ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS ON DAY 5 HAVE PWS ABOVE 2.2" OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WITH >90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PWS AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH VALLEY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
THIS ENVIRONMENT THAT IS LIKELY TO POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN
PORTIONS OF THE RECENTLY MORE SENSITIVE SOILS OF THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS, LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF A SLIGHT RISK IN THESE AREAS.
FARTHER SOUTH, GUIDANCE SHOWS VARYING SOLUTIONS OF WHAT COULD
TRANSPIRE IN EAST TX. THE 12Z ECMWF EFI HAS A SWATH OF >1 SHIFT OF
TAILS (SOT) FROM EAST TX TO AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN MS, AND EVEN A
SMALL >2 SOT NORTH OF I-10 IN EAST TX, INDICATING A SIGNAL FOR
LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BEING POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE
DETAILS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE DEEP SOUTH REMAIN
UNCLEAR. THAT SAID, THERE IS NO DENYING THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AT THESE THUNDERSTORMS DISPOSAL AND SOILS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WILL HAVE ONLY GROWN MORE SENSITIVE AFTER MULTIPLE DAYS OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A SLIGHT RISK WAS INTRODUCED OVER THE UPPER TX
COAST ON EAST INTO SOUTHWEST LA WHERE IT ALIGNS WITH NOT ONLY THE
ECMWF EFI SIGNAL BUT THE OVERLAP WITH THE MORE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
CONTENT AND THE HEAVIER WPC QPF WITHIN THE TX/LA AREA.
MULLINAX
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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