503
FXUS01 KWBC 141820
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
218 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VALID 00Z MON JUN 15 2026 - 00Z WED JUN 17 2026
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT...
...INCREASING THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOUTH TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW AND TUESDAY...
...HEAT WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS MUCH COOLER AIR
SURGES INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TO END THE HEAT IN THE
EAST...
A WEATHER PATTERN FAVORING COLD AIR INTRUSIONS FROM CANADA WILL
BRING REFRESHINGLY COOL AIR TO REPLACE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, THIS PROCESS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING RAINFALL. THIS AFTERNOON, SOUTHERLY WINDS
PULLING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS NORTHWARD WILL AID THE PRODUCTION
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE
INTENSIFIES. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THIS EPISODE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BY TOMORROW
MORNING, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE NORTHEAST, WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY STALLING OUT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED EPISODE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE
WEAKENING FRONT INTERACTS WITH A MOISTURE-LADEN DISTURBANCE
EMERGING OUT OF NORTHEAST MEXICO. THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS, AREAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4-6" (LOCALLY EVEN HIGHER) CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS AREA, WHICH WILL SUPPORT DAILY CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
ELSEWHERE, MONSOONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL BE MOST ACTIVE LATER TODAY BUT SHOULD BECOME LESS
ACTIVE WITH TIME TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURE WISE, A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE, THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP MORNING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S., WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY
SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE
CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN HOT, WITH HIGHS IN THE
110S AND 100S, RESPECTIVELY. ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, HEAT IS
FORECAST TO PEAK TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH RECORD-HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 80S AND AS HIGH AS THE MID-90S BEFORE COOLING OFF ON
TUESDAY.
ASHERMAN/KONG
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