994
FXUS06 KWBC 141902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN JUNE 14 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 20 - 24 2026
MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FROM THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE OVER NORTH
AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EXTENDED RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD IS PROLONGED TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), PARTICULARLY DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE DEPICTED
TROUGH BEGINS QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES, THEN WEAKENS SOMEWHAT AND RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM, FLOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS CHARACTERIZED BY
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES THAT MOSTLY REMAIN SOUTH OF ALASKA, WHILE POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES DOMINATE THE HIGH LATITUDES. WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGING IS
FAVORED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE GREAT PLAINS.
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FAVORS UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH ODDS EXCEEDING 50% FOR
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. CONVERSELY, WEAK TO
MODERATE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND WIDESPREAD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST, PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE CHANCES EXCEED 60%. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LOWER MID-ATLANTIC COAST UNDER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. WITH WIDESPREAD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE
ARCTIC, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, WHILE A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE BERING SEA BRINGS JUST ENOUGH OF A MODERATING EFFECT TO
FAVOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF ALASKA AS WELL AS THE
ALEUTIANS. PERSISTENT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) NEAR HAWAII KEEP
HAWAII STRONGLY FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERALLY FAVORS A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES (>40%) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AS WELL AS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS, FED
BY ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST AS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES DEFLECTS ANY PACIFIC MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
ALONG WITH MORE PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA MIGHT BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER ALASKA, RESULTING IN A WEAK TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND, WHILE THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COASTS ARE FAVORED FOR NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WHERE
CLIMATOLOGIES ARE HIGHER. WARM SSTS INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENHANCE
DIURNAL CONVECTION, PUSHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 22 - 28 2026
DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST PERSISTENT FEATURE, ALTHOUGH RATHER WEAKER THAN DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. NONETHELESS, THIS CONTINUED TROUGHING ALONG WITH ENTRENCHED RIDGING
OVER THE WEST LEADS TO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOKS FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT 500-HPA SPAGHETTI
CHARTS INDICATE MUCH HIGHER ENSEMBLE SPREAD RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
ERODING FORECAST CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
UNDER WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST AND FOR THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, PARTICULARLY FOR
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (>50% ODDS) AND OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, WHERE CHANCES EXCEED 60%. TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA BUT
LINGERING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CANADIAN ARCTIC KEEP MUCH OF
ALASKA TILTED TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH FAVORS NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST
AS WELL AS THE ALEUTIANS. HAWAII REMAINS FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. A WEAKENING OF THE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FAVORS NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND REDUCES THE AREA OF HIGHER
CONFIDENCE (40-50%) TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. TROUGHING
OVER THE BERING SEA KEEPS MOST OF ALASKA TILTED TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, AND ELEVATED SSTS CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS OFFSET BY LARGE SPREAD AMONG MODEL
ENSEMBLES.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190610 - 20130609 - 20010615 - 20220622 - 20130601
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20130609 - 20120618 - 19980626 - 20010614 - 19890623
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 20 - 24 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 22 - 28 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page