199
FXUS02 KWBC 150747
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
347 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
VALID 12Z THU JUN 18 2026 - 12Z MON JUN 22 2026
...SIGNIFICANT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT FOR THE GULF
COAST STATES ALONG WITH OHIO VALLEY/MID-SOUTH HEAVY RAINFALL...
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE FORECAST CLUSTERING OVERALL REMAINS BETTER THAN AVERAGE,
KEEPING CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER
PATTERN EVOLUTION FEATURING A HOT WEST/SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN
U.S.TIER RIDGE SHIFT AND PERIODIC DOWNSTREAM ENERGY REINFORCEMENT
FROM CANADA INTO A CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. MEAN TROUGH FAVORING
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY/MID-SOUTH HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS AMPLIFIED
PATTERN SHOULD TREND MORE ZONAL LATE PERIOD, BUT REMAIN ACTIVE. THE
INTERACTION OF TROPICAL FEATURES/DEEP MOISTURE SLATED TO FEED FROM
MEXICO TO THE GULF AND ALREADY WET GULF COAST STATES PORTENDS HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF A COPIOUS/IMPACTFUL RAINFALL/RUNOFF EVENT. DETAILS
ARE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE VARIED HANDLING/FOCUS, BUT NHC SHOWS A 30
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT TO MONITOR.
OVERALL, A FAVORED GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME FOCUS SHIFT FROM THE
MODELS LATER THIS WEEK MORE TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEANS/MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE BY THE WEEKEND PROVIDES A SOLID FORECAST BASIS WITH
SMALLER SCALE SYSTEM VARIANCES MITIGATED CONSISTENT WITH INDIVIDUAL
PREDICTABILITY. THIS SOLUTION IS OVERALL IN LINE WITH NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS TRENDS AND OFFERS GOOD WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A WAVY FRONT LINGERING FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES THIS WEEK AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUX/POOLING
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AMPLE/REPEAT HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
REGARDLESS OF ANY SORT OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHWEST
GULF, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY WILL INTERACT
WITH THE GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONT TO FUEL AN EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING THREAT. THE WPC DAY 4/THURSDAY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO) SHOWS A GULF COAST SLIGHT RISK AREA ALONG
WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF A COLLABORATED MODERATE RISK AREA FOR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE DAY 5/FRIDAY ERO
SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK AREA BROADLY ACROSS THIS RAIN SOAKED REGION.
FARTHER NORTH, A HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM THREAT REMAINS
MEANWHILE SLATED MID-LATER WEEK AS A SERIES OF ENERGETIC AND
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOWS/FRONTS DIG
FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-SOUTH. WPC
DAY 4/THURSDAY MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS ARE DEPICTED,
LINKING WITH THE MORE TROPICALLY FUELED GULF COAST THREAT LATER
WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A SPC SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY TO MONITOR. THREAT POTENTIAL
MAY PERSIST LATER PERIOD AS SYSTEMS REFIRE ACTIVITY, BUT ALSO
EXPAND FOCUS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH FRONTAL APPROACH.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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