725
FXUS01 KWBC 150815
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
VALID 12Z MON JUN 15 2026 - 12Z WED JUN 17 2026
...INCREASING THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SOUTH
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
...RAIN EXITING NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AS MUCH COOLER AIR SURGES
INTO THE EASTERN TOW-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...
...HEAT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON
TUESDAY...
A WEATHER PATTERN FAVORING COLD AIR INTRUSIONS FROM CANADA IS
BRINGING A REFRESHINGLY COOL AIR MASS INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THE REMAINING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WILL MOSTLY EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE WAVE AND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S FROM
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING,
SPREADING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S, WHICH ARE
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS.
AS THE COOL AIR MASS DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., THE STAGE IS SET FOR A PROLONGED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO COMPLEX INTERACTIONS
AMONG AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITING THE MEXICAN PLATEAU,
TROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR THE WESTERN GULF AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO,
AND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE GULF COAST.
THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS, AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4-6" WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE
INTO LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
TEXAS GULF COAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK. ENHANCED TROPICAL RAINFALL
COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTHERN TEXAS BY LATER ON TUESDAY, POSSIBLY
MOVING FURTHER UP THE TEXAS COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, A COUPLE OF QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL DELIVER SOME SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY TO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO, AND WILL BE INTENSIFYING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, MONSOONAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY SHOULD HAVE TAPERED OFF
BY TUESDAY. ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, HEAT IS FORECAST TO
PEAK TODAY WITH RECORD-HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING AS HIGH AS THE
UPPER-90S BEFORE COOLING OFF ON TUESDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN HOT, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 110S AND 90S-100S, RESPECTIVELY. FLORIDA WILL SEE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
KONG
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