603
FXUS06 KWBC 151902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JUNE 15 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 21 - 25 2026
AT THE OUTSET OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE
LIFTING OUT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA. IN ITS WAKE, THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS,
AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A MORE ZONALLY
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD,
MODELS BUILD MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND INDICATE RENEWED
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT
BLEND DEPICTS NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, NORTHEAST, AND
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS, AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. WHILE WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF ALASKA FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE, A TREND TOWARD MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGHING OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA FAVORS DECREASING HEIGHTS
WITH TIME, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC RESULTS IN NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER HAWAII.
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC TIED TO PERIODIC TROUGHING AND FRONTAL ACTIVITY BRINGING COOLER
CANADIAN AIR FARTHER SOUTH THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE ANALOGS.
CONVERSELY, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AS RIDGING BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ALSO
INCREASED NEAR THE GULF COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
ARE HIGHER AND THERE IS LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGHING TO THE NORTH. ACROSS
ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MAINLAND, ALONG WITH EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO POSITIVE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. HOWEVER, AS TROUGHING BUILDS CLOSER TO THE STATE, INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING IS ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND THE FAR WESTERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA WHERE
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
OVER HAWAII, SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION AND ABOVE-NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD TIED TO TRANSIENT FRONTAL ACTIVITY LEADING TO BROADLY ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WHERE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ELEVATED WEST OF THE
ROCKIES UNDERNEATH INCREASING RIDGING AND DUE TO GOOD SUPPORT AMONG THE VARIOUS
FORECAST TOOLS. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY AREAS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, WHERE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. A WEAK TILT TOWARD
ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IS DEPICTED FOR MUCH OF
ALASKA TIED TO INCREASED ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
PERIOD. NEAR-TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
FARTHEST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE INCOMING TROUGHING. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF HAWAII, EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS WHERE
NEAR-NORMAL IS MORE LIKELY.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL MID-LEVEL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA, OFFSET BY
A MORE TRANSIENT PATTERN EMERGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 23 - 29 2026
DURING WEEK-2, DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT A FAIRLY STABLE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. RIDGING REMAINS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH
INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. THE 0Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WEST DEPICTING AN EXPANSIVE AREA WITH DAILY +60 METER POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE AI ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES DEPICT A MORE ROBUST TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE PHYSICS-BASED MODELS NOT AS AMPLIFIED WITH
THIS FEATURE BUT STILL INDICATING A WEAKNESS IN THE OVERALL HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS
THE EAST. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND GENERALLY DEPICTS NEAR-NORMAL
HEIGHTS EAST OF THE GREAT PLAINS, AND ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS TO THE WEST,
INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC COAST.
TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.
WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA.
NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII AS RIDGING RETROGRADES AND
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MAY RESULT IN PERIODIC HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GULF COAST,
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. PERSISTENT ROUNDS OF TROUGHING INTO THE MIDWEST, GREAT
LAKES, AND NORTHEAST SUPPORT MAINTAINING ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MANY OF THESE AREAS. UNCALIBRATED TOOLS SUPPORT A FARTHER
SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES, BUT THE
REFORECAST AND ANALOGS LEAN TOWARD A WARMER FORECAST. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALASKA TIED TO INCREASED TROUGHING AND MORE ONSHORE FLOW. THE GEFS AND ECMWF
REFORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINLAND AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER HAWAII, DUE IN PART TO WARM SSTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
TROUGHING AND TRANSIENT FRONTAL ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WEAKLY ENHANCED
ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF EXACT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY SPECIFIC IMPULSES.
ENHANCED RIDGING FAVORS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. INCREASED
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAY ADVECT INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LOW PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA TIED TO ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW.
OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES ALSO FAVOR INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WEST, OFFSET BY DECREASING SIGNALS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND A LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190611 - 20000626 - 20190617 - 20130602 - 20130608
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190611 - 20130609 - 19890623 - 20010614 - 20130604
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 21 - 25 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 23 - 29 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN B N RHODE IS N N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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