374
FXUS02 KWBC 151959
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
VALID 12Z THU JUN 18 2026 - 12Z MON JUN 22 2026
...SIGNIFICANT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT FOR THE GULF
COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING
OUT WEST BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THIS WEEKEND. A TROPICAL
FEATURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OCCURS
SOUTH WITH A CENTRAL STATES LOW THIS WEEKEND. NHC HAS INCREASED ITS
PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO 50%.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LOW AND ITS TRACK INLAND LATER
THIS WEEK. THE EC REMAINS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WHILE THE EC-AIFS
SEEMS TO BE A DECENT MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE FASTER UKMET/CMC AND
WEAKER GFS.
THE DAY 3-7 PROGS WERE BASED ON A GENERALLY MODEL BLEND FAVORING
THE 06Z AIFS WHERE MANUALLY POSSIBLE. QPF HAS UPDATED 13Z NBM WITH
THE 06Z AIFS/GFS AND SOME EC THIS WEEKEND OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
STATES.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A WAVE OF TROPICAL ORIGIN LIFTS UP THE TEXAS COAST MIDWEEK,
TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN
EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUX AND
INSTABILITY WILL SURGE IN FROM THE COAST A FUEL A NOTABLE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING THREAT INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE
ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION, SO TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY
PERSIST WITH THIS FEATURE. PLEASE SEE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DISCUSSION (ERD) AND HAZARDS CHART (BOTH ARE LINKED BELOW) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON THE MODERATE RISK ON DAY 4 AND LINGERING RISKS
FROM TEXAS TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR DAY 5.
THIS WEEKEND, A COLORADO LOW LOOKS TO FORM AND TRACK OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING INTO
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO SIZABLE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
WEST COAST RIDGING KEEPS TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER BC BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE A BIT OVER
THE WEEKEND. RIDGING LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE, SOMEWHAT NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CONUS, THOUGH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES, MAKING FOR A HEAT WAVE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.
JACKSON
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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