307
FXUS02 KWBC 160650
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VALID 12Z FRI JUN 19 2026 - 12Z TUE JUN 23 2026
...SIGNIFICANT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT TO PERSIST FOR
THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY/SATURDAY...
...WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK HEAVY RAINS EMERGE FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC...
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
AN EMERGING TROPICAL FEATURE SET TO WORK FROM TEXAS COAST TO THE
GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY WILL POOL DEEP RETURN MOISTURE
TO FUEL MULTI-DAY EXCESSIVE RAINALL/FLOODING THREATS. NHC NOW HAS
EARLY WEEK PROBABILITY OF TEXAS COAST TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT 50%.
ELSEWHERE, HOT WEST/SOUTHWEST UPPER RIDGING WILL TEND TO FLATTEN
AND BECOME EAST-WEST ORIENTED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS PERIOD AS
EAST PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH ENERGIES PROGRESS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF OUR FINE NATION IN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW WITH EJECTION
OF LEADING AND AMPLIFIED EAST-CENTRAL MEAN U.S. UPPER TROUGHING.
GUIDANCE FORECAST SPREAD ASIDE FROM TROPICAL DIFFERENCES REMAINS
BETTER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WHEN A COMPOSITE
GUIDANCE SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. SYSTEM UNCERTAINIES GROW TO
MORE NORMAL LEVELS NEXT WEEK WITH FLOW TRANSITION. ACCORDINGLY,
MOSTLY FAVOR A COMPATIBLE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE BLEND THEN VERSUS MUCH RELIANCE ON ANY SPECIFIC
SOLUTION. THIS ALSO ACTS TO MAINTAIN BEST WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A WAVE OF TROPICAL ORIGIN LIFTS UP THE TEXAS COAST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
INFLUX AND INSTABILITY WILL SURGE IN FROM THE COAST TO FUEL A
NOTABLE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING THREAT. PLEASE ALSO SEE
THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION (ERD) AND HAZARDS OUTLOOK
CHART (LINKED BELOW) FOR ADDITIONAL RISK DETAILS.
THIS WEEKEND, A COLORADO LOW LOOKS TO FORM AND TRACK OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES THEN THE NORTHEAST. DEEPENING
MOISTURE LIFTING INTO THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
GENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO SIZABLE AREAS OF HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN
WITH WEEKEND FOCUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY
STATES EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST UPPER RIDGING KEEPS TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER BC BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE A
INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME RIDGING LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE WEST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, CLOSER TO NORMAL SUMMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER 48, THOUGH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN HIGH NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES THAT
ALONG WITH SOUTHERN TIER UPPER RIDGING MAY SUPPORT HAZARDOUS HEAT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF COAST.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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