118
FXUS01 KWBC 160806
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 16 2026 - 12Z THU JUN 18 2026
...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY...
..NOT AS HOT ON THE WEST COAST
A WEATHER PATTERN FAVORING COLD AIR INTRUSIONS FROM CANADA IS
BRINGING A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALSO SEND A
COUPLE OF QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER, BRINGING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO, AND WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS FORECAST TO EMERGE ACROSS IOWA TO ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO ERUPT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE MIDWEST, THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES FURTHER AND FORCES ITS WAY
EASTWARD. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED AN ENHANCED
TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION, THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER IS HIGHLIGHTING A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN THIS
GENERAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH BRING VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER REACHES UPSTATE NEW YORK AND DOWN
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.
WHILE THE COOL AIR MASS DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., A PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO COMPLEX INTERACTIONS
AMONG A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITING THE MEXICAN PLATEAU,
TROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR THE WESTERN GULF AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO,
AND THE SAME COLD FRONT BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY JUST INLAND
FROM THE GULF COAST. THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS, STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 5-7" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE TEXAS COASTLINE INTO LOUISIANA. NUMEROUS INSTANCES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. IN ADDITION, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ENHANCED TROPICAL RAINFALL COULD BE MOVING UP THE TEXAS
COAST ON WEDNESDAY, REACHING INTO LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ALONG THE WEST COAST, HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SOME MORE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF
CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN HOT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 110S AND 90S-100S,
RESPECTIVELY. FLORIDA WILL SEE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
KONG
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