862
FXUS06 KWBC 161902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUNE 16 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 22 - 26 2026
A STABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. RIDGING IS FAVORED TO BECOME DOMINANT ACROSS THE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, WITH DAILY +60 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES DEPICTED IN THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL ENSEMBLES. THIS BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE GEFS AMPLIFIES TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, WITH THE OTHER
MODELS ALSO INDICATING A RETROGRESSION OF THE LARGEST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
INTO THE PACIFIC. DOWNSTREAM, TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EAST OF THE ROCKIES FAVORING A VARIABLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN OVER
THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE AI ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES DEPICT A MORE
ROBUST TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WITH THE PHYSICS-BASED MODELS NOT AS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE.
TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS A LARGE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
CENTER (-150 METERS) ACROSS THE ARCTIC, WITH A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER
(+120 METERS) TO ITS SOUTH ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA. FOR THE CONUS,
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEST, GREAT PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST. CLOSER TO NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND NORTHEAST. WHILE WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF ALASKA FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE, A TREND TOWARD MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGHING OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA FAVORS DECREASING HEIGHTS
WITH TIME, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC TIED TO PERIODIC TROUGHING AND FRONTAL ACTIVITY BRINGING COOLER
CANADIAN AIR FARTHER SOUTH THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE ANALOGS, WITH THE
AI MODELS BEING THE MOST EXPANSIVE WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONVERSELY,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS RIDGING
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT, ALTHOUGH THE GEFS DEPICTS MORE WEAK TROUGHING TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING, BUT WITH THE
PERIOD AS A WHOLE LEANING ABOVE-NORMAL. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE
ALSO INCREASED NEAR THE GULF COAST AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE HIGHER AND THERE IS LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.
ACROSS ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MAINLAND, ALONG WITH EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO POSITIVE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. HOWEVER, AS TROUGHING BUILDS CLOSER TO THE STATE,
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING IS ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA WHERE NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER HAWAII,
SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION AND ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD TIED TO TRANSIENT FRONTAL ACTIVITY LEADING TO BROADLY ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS, TENNESSEE
VALLEY, AND THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHERE A SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEADING TO A FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ELEVATED WEST
OF THE ROCKIES UNDERNEATH INCREASING RIDGING AND DUE TO GOOD SUPPORT AMONG THE
VARIOUS FORECAST TOOLS. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY AREAS OF
THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. A WEAK TILT TOWARD
ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IS DEPICTED FOR MUCH OF
ALASKA TIED TO INCREASED ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
PERIOD. NEAR-TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
FARTHEST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE INCOMING TROUGHING. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL MID-LEVEL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA, OFFSET BY
A MORE TRANSIENT PATTERN EMERGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 24 - 30 2026
THE WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THAT OF THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, SUGGESTIVE OF A STABLE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVE FEATURES IS MORE UNCERTAIN. THE POSITIVE
(NEGATIVE) HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS REMAIN ACROSS THE ARCTIC (NORTH-CENTRAL
CANADA) IN THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED EAST OF
THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS TO THE WEST. TELECONNECTIONS WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER SUPPORT SOME TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS, AND THIS IS APPARENT IN THE GEFS, AS WELL AS RECENT
DETERMINISTIC GFS RUNS. WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGHING,
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE WEST RETROGRADING INTO
THE PACIFIC AND RESULTING IN DECREASING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. TO THE EAST,
THE AI-BASED MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES COMPARED TO THE PHYSICS-BASED VERSIONS OF THE MODELS.
TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.
WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA, GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE FARTHER EAST. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR
HAWAII TIED TO SHORTWAVE IMPULSES THAT MAY RESULT IN PERIODIC HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GULF COAST,
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE GEFS ALONG WITH A TELECONNECTION FROM THE POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA SUPPORTS SOME REDUCTION IN
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. PERSISTENT ROUNDS OF TROUGHING INTO THE MIDWEST, GREAT
LAKES, AND NORTHEAST SUPPORT MAINTAINING ELEVATED CHANCES OF NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MANY OF THESE AREAS. UNCALIBRATED TOOLS, ALONG
WITH AI GUIDANCE, SUPPORT A FARTHER SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES, BUT THE REFORECAST AND ANALOGS SUPPORT A WARMER
FORECAST. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA TIED TO INCREASED TROUGHING AND MORE ONSHORE
FLOW. THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINLAND AND INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER HAWAII, DUE IN
PART TO WARM SSTS OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AND TRANSIENT FRONTAL ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WEAKLY
ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND
FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN TERMS OF
EXACT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY SPECIFIC IMPULSES. ENHANCED RIDGING FAVORS
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WEST COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
MAY ADVECT INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LOW PRECIPITATION
CLIMATOLOGY. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA TIED
TO ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW. OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES ALSO FAVOR INCREASED ODDS FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
INCONSISTENT SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND A TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF SPECIFIC FEATURES
WITHIN THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190613 - 20000627 - 20190618 - 20130603 - 20170622
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190612 - 20190617 - 20130606 - 20000624 - 20200624
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 22 - 26 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 24 - 30 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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