734
FXUS02 KWBC 170654
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 20 2026 - 12Z WED JUN 24 2026
...WEEKEND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY/MID-SOUTH...
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
UPPER RIDGING WILL FOCUS HEAT OVER THE NATION'S SOUTHERN TIER AS A
SERIES OF ACTIVE PACIFIC SYSTEMS PROGRESS WITH LESS CERTAIN TIMING
OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE LOWER 48 IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW.
GUIDANCE FORECAST SPREAD SEEMS BETTER THAN NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND,
THEN INCREASES NEXT WEEK WITH FLOW TRANSITION. ACCORDINGLY, FAVOR
A MULTI-MODEL, ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE BLEND
FOR THE PERIOD WHICH DOES NOT FAVOR ANY SPECIFIC DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION. THIS ACTS TO MAINTAIN GOOD WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
WEEKEND CENTRAL PLAINS FRONTAL LOW GENESIS AND MIDWEST/NORTHEAST
TRACK EARLY NEXT WEEK SETS THE STAGE FOR A STORMY WEATHER PERIOD.
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENERGIES ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
MEANWHILE, DEEPENING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND UPPER DYNAMIC AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORT TO THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO THREATS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS STATES AND THE MID-SOUTH WHERE THE WPC
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK OFFERS WEEKEND MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK
AREAS. SPC ALSO DEPICTS A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY. LINGERING ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE RAINFALL FOCUS WILL
WORK INTO THE EAST AND SHIFT DOWN OVER A MOISTENED SOUTH INTO
EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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