738
FXUS01 KWBC 170813
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
VALID 12Z WED JUN 17 2026 - 12Z FRI JUN 19 2026
...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MIDWEST TO THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY...
...HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY,
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...
A RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AS POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (PTC1)
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PTC1 AND
THE FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
A MULTIDAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THE
CENTER OF PTC1 IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST
TODAY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST
WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
FORECAST TO FALL AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF PTC1 FROM THE TEXAS GULF
COAST, THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST AS THE
CENTER OF PTC1 IS FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND AND DISSIPATE
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA BY THURSDAY MORNING. GENERALLY 5 TO 10
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS NEAR 20 INCHES, ARE
FORECAST NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK OF PTC1 WHERE A MODERATE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. THIS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER
OF PTC1 IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE REMNANTS
OF PTC1 ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING FARTHER EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF PTC1.
MEANWHILE, A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS IN STORE TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. A
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL MOVE
EASTWARD, REACHING THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONG SURFACE
LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION BY THE EVENING HOURS.
WITH A STRONG CONCURRENT INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE, CARRYING A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND POTENTIALLY INTENSE TORNADOES. WINDS
COULD REACH UP TO 80 MPH IN SOME AREAS, WITH UP TO 2.5-INCH HAIL
EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS
OUTLINED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA FOR TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME,
RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES, WITH A MODERATE RISK SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
BY THURSDAY, A RELATIVELY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR JUNE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC, CANADA. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING HEAT AND HUMIDITY BACK TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW CENTER. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO SOAR WELL UP INTO THE 90S INTO LOWER 100S IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC WHERE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED ON
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH COOL AIR USHERED INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
GREAT LAKES.
THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH HIGHS REACHING 100 IN THE GREAT BASIN, 110S IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY.
KONG/BLANCO-ALCALA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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