436
FXUS06 KWBC 171902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JUNE 17 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 23 - 27 2026
THE PREFERRED ECENS AND CMCE DEPICT AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LONGWAVE RIDGE, THESE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FAVOR A
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE GEFS BREAKS DOWN THE
WEST COAST RIDGE QUICKER WHICH LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND AND
THE ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FAVORED THE MORE STABLE
ECENS AND CMCE SOLUTIONS. ANOMALOUS 500-HPA RIDGING LEADS TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 70% ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN WHERE THE ECENS INDICATES 5-DAY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES
F. HEADING INTO THE START OF THIS PERIOD ON JUNE 23, A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
LATE JUNE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST LATER IN THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THESE
FREQUENT COLD FRONTS, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, CORN BELT, OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND
NORTHEAST. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS UNLIKELY WITH
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINING ENTRENCHED, AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF TEXAS, THE GULF COAST, AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST.
THIS 5-DAY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS,
MIDWEST, AND NORTHEAST FOR LATE JUNE DUE TO THE FREQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE, THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK LEANS ON THE WETTER
SIDE FOR THESE AREAS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED
(40-50%) FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS EAST TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHERE FRONTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO STALL. A SLIGHT LEAN (33-40% CHANCE) TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTENDS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY DUE TO PREDICTED EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SINCE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE 500-HPA RIDGE AXIS REMAINING ANCHORED
EITHER OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA OR NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH DAY 10 (JUNE 27), THE
ONSET OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE FINAL DAYS OF JUNE.
OUTSIDE OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY AREAS OF THE WEST, THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA
RIDGE FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS ALASKA, DEPICTING THE
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND A DEEP
CLOSED 500-HPA LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA ALONG WITH PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, LARGE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES
(60-70%) ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO SUPPORT AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR LATE JUNE.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - JUL 01, 2026
SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE MORE STABLE ECENS AND CME MODEL SOLUTIONS
WERE PREFERRED WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE 500-HPA RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST AND
A DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH, OF VARYING AMPLITUDE, OVER THE MIDWEST. THE
ANOMALOUS RIDGE WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN CONUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS LOWER EAST OF THE ROCKIES SINCE THE ECENS/CMCE AND GEFS
DIVERGE BY DAY 10 (JUNE 27). THE ECENS/CME FAVOR A REINFORCING PERIOD OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS, WHILE THE GEFS DEPICTS A FLIP TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN UPSTREAM OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND WESTERN CONUS, THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FAVORED THE MORE
PERSISTENT TROUGHING AND COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECENS AND CMCE FOR THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE ANALOG TOOL, WITH ITS VERY HIGH ANOMALY CORRELATION
(0.935) BETWEEN ITS 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND THE MANUAL BLEND, ALSO SUPPORTS A
COOLER OUTCOME. THEREFORE, NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS, CORN BELT, OHIO VALLEY, AND NORTHEAST. SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, AND TEXAS.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH, CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST, COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTATION
FOR AT LEAST ONE FRONTAL PASSAGE FAVORS A BROAD AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED (40-50%) FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EAST TO MIDWEST WHERE THE ECENS AND CMCE DEPICT MEAN SURFACE FRONT. FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
FLORIDA. BASED ON THE LIKELIHOOD FOR WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING
FROM MID TO LATE JUNE OVER THE WEST AND THE 500-HPA RIDGE AXIS PREDICTED TO
BEGIN SHIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS, A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF JUNE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DRY START
TO WEEK-2, THE OUTLOOK ONLY LEANED SLIGHTLY ON THE WETTER SIDE AND WAS SMALLER
IN COVERAGE THAN WHAT THE ANALOG TOOL DEPICTS. THE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALOFT
FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ALBEIT WITH LOW PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE
DRIER TIME OF YEAR.
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH AN
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS MID-LEVEL TROUGH
FAVORS AN ELEVATED CHANCE (33-40%) OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NEARLY ALL
OF ALASKA WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE LOWER FOR
EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ONLY SLIGHTLY LEANS
ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION ALONG WITH SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED THROUGH
WEEK-2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER ALASKA AND THE WESTERN CONUS OFFSET BY LOWER
CONFIDENCE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190613 - 20000627 - 20190618 - 20190601 - 20170622
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190613 - 20190618 - 20000625 - 20130606 - 20170622
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 23 - 27 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - JUL 01, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N A MAINE N N
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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