128
FXUS01 KWBC 171916
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
315 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
VALID 00Z THU JUN 18 2026 - 00Z SAT JUN 20 2026
...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MIDWEST TO
OHIO VALLEY TODAY...
...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD, BRINGING POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, NORTHEAST, AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY...
AN ACTIVE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS SET TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
NEWLY CATEGORIZED TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR REMAINS THE MAIN STORY FOR
THE GULF COAST STATES AS IT PROGRESSES FARTHER INLAND. THE
CONTINUED INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH ARTHUR AND THE FAST-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN TO THE NORTH WILL
PERPETUATE MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, ARTHUR IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS, AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FROM MUCH OF THE TEXAS COAST INTO PARTS OF
LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI, AND ALABAMA, ALONG WITH WESTERN PORTIONS
OF GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS
NEAR 20 INCHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH SCATTERED MINOR RIVER
FLOODING, WITH ISOLATED MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE.
AS SUCH, A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTERâ€S EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO) FOR THIS REGION OVER EACH OF THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR WILL INCLUDE A
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
MEANWHILE, A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS SET TO BEGIN TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. A
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE
QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD, REACHING THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONG
SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION BY THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE TROUGH,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE, CARRYING A RISK OF
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND INTENSE TORNADOES. WINDS COULD
REACH UP TO 75 MPH IN SOME AREAS. AS A RESULT, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS OUTLINED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5)
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA
FOR TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME, RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS,
WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) SPANNING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES.
BY THURSDAY, AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC, CANADA. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING HEAT AND HUMIDITY BACK TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY, WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW CENTER. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, AND THE SPC HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 90S AND LOWER 100S IN THE MID-ATLANTIC, WHERE RECORD-HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING,
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, USHERING
COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THE GREAT LAKES. MUCH OF THE
WEST WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 100S IN THE GREAT BASIN AND THE 110S IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY.
BLANCO-ALCALA/KONG
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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