205
FXUS02 KWBC 171941
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 20 2026 - 12Z WED JUN 24 2026
...WEEKEND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY/MID-SOUTH...
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREATS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON THE AMPLITUDE OF
THESE VORTICES AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS, THOUGH OTHER
GUIDANCE DID DEPICT SOME SORT OF MID-LEVEL WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TIER. THUS, A GENERAL MODEL BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DETERMINISTIC AND AI GUIDANCE WERE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAPTURE
THIS EVOLUTION THROUGH SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE
COUNTRY WITH SOME WEAK TROUGHING PUSHING THROUGH THE EAST BY MID-
WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST BY NEXT
TUESDAY, WHERE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN. THE
USUAL GRADUAL INCREASE IN ENSEMBLE MEAN WEIGHTING WAS APPLIED TO
THE BLEND BETWEEN DAYS 5 AND 7 NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
STRUGGLE TO AGREE ON THE AMPLITUDE OF AN EARLY-WEEK TROUGH IN THE
NORTHEAST, THEREFORE, THE INCLUSION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AS EARLY
AS DAY 4, HELPED MITIGATE THIS UNCERTAINTY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
WEEKEND CENTRAL PLAINS FRONTAL LOW GENESIS AND MIDWEST/NORTHEAST
TRACK EARLY NEXT WEEK SETS THE STAGE FOR A STORMY WEATHER PERIOD.
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ENERGIES ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
MEANWHILE, DEEPENING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND UPPER DYNAMIC AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORT TO THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO THREATS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING WITH FOCUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS STATES AND THE MID-SOUTH WHERE THE WPC
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK OFFERS WEEKEND MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK
AREAS. SPC ALSO DEPICTS A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY. LINGERING ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE RAINFALL FOCUS WILL
WORK INTO THE EAST AND SHIFT DOWN OVER A MOISTENED SOUTH INTO
EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT.
KEBEDE/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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