688
FXUS06 KWBC 181902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JUNE 18 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 24 - 28 2026
ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA, TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A STRONGLY ANOMALOUS COUPLET WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA. ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA,
ANOMALOUS TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND
SOUTHEAST OF GREENLAND. THE PATTERN IS MORE MUTED OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IS FORECAST STRETCHING FROM
THE PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THESE POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE WEST AS TIME PROGRESSES. DOWNSTREAM, AN
ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS ALSO FORECAST TO
WEAKEN, SUCH THAT THE PATTERN BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL BY DAY 10. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW IS FORECAST OVER OR NEAR HAWAII. TODAY'S 500-HPA MANUAL BLEND IS COMPOSED
MOSTLY OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS, BASED PRIMARILY ON ANALYSIS OF
RECENT SKILL.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST, PARTICULARLY
EARLY, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE MOST PERSISTENT. NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS
TIED TO A WEAKENING TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST,
NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH OF A PREDICTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
(GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS WELL TO ITS NORTH.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF TROUGHS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, RESPECTIVELY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINLAND, TIED TO THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MODESTLY FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES, TIED TO A WEAKENING TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO BE DRAPED FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. AS THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WEAKENS, THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION TRANSLATES NORTHWARD. AS THIS
NORTHWARD TRANSITION OCCURS, A DRIER PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTH TEXAS, AS THE STORM TRACK MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM
THESE REGIONS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TIED TO PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS
PREDICTED TO BE NEAR THE US/MEXICO BORDER, WHICH IS TOO SOUTH TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR AN ENHANCED MONSOON. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS GENERALLY FAVORED FOR ALASKA,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST COAST OF THE MAINLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF
TROUGHS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, RESPECTIVELY. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII TIED TO A MID LEVEL LOW PREDICTED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A PREDICTED LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 26 - JUL 02, 2026
THE PREDICTED 500-HPA PATTERN FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD IS REMARKABLE IN TERMS OF
ITS LACK OF AMPLIFICATION. NEAR NORMAL MEAN HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF ALASKA AND THE ENTIRE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL
MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST, BUT EVEN THESE ANOMALIES
ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THE MOST PROMINENT ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL
FEATURE IS A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC, WHICH HAS RETROGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE WEAK AND UNCERTAIN PATTERN
PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF MID-LATITUDE NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY,
TELECONNECTIONS FROM HIGHER LATITUDE FEATURES WERE RELIED HEAVILY UPON TO
INFORM TODAY'S OUTLOOK. THESE FEATURES INCLUDE THE PERSISTENCE OF A STRONG
MID-LEVEL COUPLET PUNCTUATED BY A STRONG ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE AND ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA. THIS COUPLET IS
BRACKETED BY MODEST TROUGHS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS, OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA,
AND NEAR SOUTHEASTERN GREENLAND, RESPECTIVELY. PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
OR CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST NEAR OR OVER HAWAII.
GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS, MODESTLY ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE)
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA, NEAR THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH
(GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY, AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BEGINS TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE INDICATED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED
CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND TIED TO THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE
FORECAST OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TIED TO A WEAKENING TROUGH. AS THIS
TROUGH WEAKENS, THE MEAN STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD, MODESTLY
FAVORING A DRIER PATTERN TO ITS SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS. CONVERSELY, A WETTER PATTERN IS MODESTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, AS THE RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED FOR LOWER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, AS A PREDICTED NORTHWARD DRIFT OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LATER IN THE PERIOD IS SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS TIME PROGRESSES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF
ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED MEAN CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW. A PERSISTENT
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR HAWAII FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO VERY WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
DOMAIN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190613 - 20000627 - 20190618 - 20170623 - 20190602
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190613 - 20000627 - 20190618 - 20170623 - 20130606
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 24 - 28 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA B A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA B A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 26 - JUL 02, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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