344
FXUS02 KWBC 181910
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
VALID 12Z SUN JUN 21 2026 - 12Z THU JUN 25 2026
...HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT FROM THE MIDWEST TO PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
..BUILDING HEAT FOR THE SOUTHWEST
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CONUS
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AS THEY
APPROACH THEIR TYPICALLY HOTTEST TIME OF YEAR. THIS ALSO FAVORS
MODEST TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE LOWER 48, BUT
HEIGHTS WILL TREND TOWARD NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. RAINFALL WILL FOLLOW
ALONG THE PATH OF EMBEDDED STORMS WITHIN THE PATTERN, PRIMARILY
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST TO THE EAST. A MORE ORGANIZED STORM
SUN-MON MAY BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN TO SOME AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST.
THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES WERE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, BUT THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW LEADS TO SYSTEM TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT ARE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN BEYOND A FEW DAYS. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED THOUGH WITH LESS TO NO EMPHASIS ON SOME OF
THE APPARENT OUTLIER SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF OFFERED THE BEST
COMPATIBILITY WITH THE ENSEMBLES OVERALL AND THE NBM WAS REASONABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
GIVEN THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN, WE HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE NORTHEAST
AND THE MID-ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY, BUT THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE REGION MAY SUPPORT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATER NEXT WEEK FROM THE PLAINS
EASTWARD AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM EXITING THE ROCKIES.
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE LOWER 48 THROUGH THE THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
HIGHEST HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE CONFINED TO TEXAS, NEAR THE GULF
COAST, FLORIDA, AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MID- ATLANTIC WHERE
HEATRISK VALUES WILL WAVER BETWEEN MODERATE AND MAJOR. MEANWHILE,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AND DRY CONDITIONS) WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE WEST WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY CLIMBING FURTHER INTO THE 100S-110S
IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD FROM
THE NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK.
FRACASSO/KONG
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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