246
FXUS01 KWBC 181930
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
VALID 00Z FRI JUN 19 2026 - 00Z SUN JUN 21 2026
...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR TO MAINTAIN A SUBSTANTIAL
FLASH FLOODING THREAT ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST...
...A DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SATURDAY...
...AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE EAST COAST, USHERING IN
COOLER AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND, WHILE
THE WEST REMAINS HOT TO END THE WEEK...
THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SUBSTANTIAL
FLASH FLOODING THREAT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS, LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GEORGIA. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, AND GIVEN HIGHLY
SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION, RAINFALL WILL BE
CAPABLE OF INDUCING CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING. AS
SUCH, THERE IS A HIGH RISK (LEVEL 4/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN
THIS REGION FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. EXPECTED RAINFALL, ALBEIT
LIGHTER THAN TODAY, WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE FLOODING ISSUES IN
AREAS WHERE REPEATING STORMS CONTINUE. DUE TO PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND VERY SATURATED SOILS HEADING INTO FRIDAY, THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, WITH A WIDESPREAD SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
IN MUCH OF THE SURROUNDING AREA.
FARTHER WEST, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD
OUT OF THE PACIFIC. A SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH A ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITHIN A WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTH TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT, WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. AS SUCH, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. THE SPC HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS A RESULT.
MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., THE ACTIVE COLD FRONT
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT SEVERE WEATHER WILL MOVE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, A GUSTY WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND COMFORTABLY
DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW DEW POINTS IN THE
50S. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S. IN CONTRAST, UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER
A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, WHERE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE 80S AND LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF
CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN HOT INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS HOVERING
IN THE 110S AND 100S, RESPECTIVELY.
BLANCO-ALCALA
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