610
FXUS02 KWBC 190754
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VALID 12Z MON JUN 22 2026 - 12Z FRI JUN 26 2026
***HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK***
***BUILDING HEAT FOR THE SOUTHWEST***
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
AN OVERALL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NATION FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-
SOUTH, AND ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY.
THE 00Z MODELS/ENSEMBLES WERE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW LEADS
TO SYSTEM TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
WAS UTILIZED THROUGH MID-WEEK, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS THEREAFTER.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
GIVEN THE RISK OF HEAVIER RAIN ON MONDAY, A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS VALID FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THIS SAME GENERAL REGION. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CLEAR THE NORTHEAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY, BUT THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LINGERING MOISTURE
IN THE REGION MAY SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATER NEXT
WEEK FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM EXITING THE
ROCKIES.
GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
HIGHEST HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE CONFINED TO TEXAS, NEAR THE GULF
COAST, AND FLORIDA WHERE HEATRISK VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN
MODERATE AND MAJOR. MEANWHILE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AND DRY
CONDITIONS) WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WEST WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY
CLIMBING FURTHER INTO THE 100S-110S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK.
HAMRICK/FRACASSO
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES
ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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