859
FXUS01 KWBC 190818
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
417 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VALID 12Z FRI JUN 19 2026 - 12Z SUN JUN 21 2026
...SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES TODAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST...
...A DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM RENEWS THE THREAT OF NUMEROUS
FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE STORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND...
...COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE EAST COAST, USHERING IN COOLER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND, WHILE THE WEST
REMAINS HOT TO END THE WEEK...
IN THE NEAR TERM, MUCH OF OUR ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST AS THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
ARTHUR DRIVES ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING OVER AN
AREA WHICH HAS SEEN DOUBLE DIGIT RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. BY THIS MORNING, HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST, OVERLAPPING WITH AREAS OBSERVING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD
IMPACTS. WHILE THE RAINFALL FORECAST TODAY IS LOWER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THESE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE
AREAS CAN QUICKLY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING. WEST OF THE HARDEST HIT AREAS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AT LARGE ARE ALSO AT RISK FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING TODAY AS AN APPROACHING FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. THE THREAT OF SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE AREA.
AT THE SAME TIME TOMORROW, A SEPARATE ZONE OF IMPACTFUL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL EMERGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE-SIDE CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT. THE INITIAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD MAINLY PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS, INCLUDING TORNADOES, HAIL, AND WIND. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, THESE STORMS SHOULD GROW INTO A COMPLEX
WHICH COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOCALLY EXCEEDING 4 TO 6
INCHES AND NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODS. AS WE LOOK TOWARD SUNDAY, THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
INTO THE MIDWEST AS THE FRONT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGER IN THE
HEARTLAND, WHILE SEVERE WEATHER ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., THE ACTIVE COLD FRONT
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT SEVERE WEATHER WILL MOVE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, A GUSTY WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND COMFORTABLY
DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW DEW POINTS IN THE
50S. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S. IN CONTRAST, UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNDER
A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, WHERE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE 80S AND LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST, THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF
CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN HOT INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS HOVERING
IN THE 110S AND 100S, RESPECTIVELY.
ASHERMAN/BLANCO-ALCALA
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