056
FXUS06 KWBC 191902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JUNE 19 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - 29 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, AND ARE CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF
MODEL STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL
BLEND INDICATES A STRONGLY ANOMALOUS COUPLET WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
CANADA. ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA, ANOMALOUS
TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST OF
GREENLAND. THE PATTERN IS MORE MUTED OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES. AN ELONGATED
AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM THE PACIFIC
TO THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THESE POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE WEST AS TIME PROGRESSES. DOWNSTREAM, AN
ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS ALSO FORECAST TO
WEAKEN, SUCH THAT THE PATTERN BECOMES MOSTLY ZONAL BY DAY 10. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW IS FORECAST OVER OR NEAR HAWAII.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST, PARTICULARLY
EARLY, ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS HIGHEST (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BE MOST PERSISTENT. NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS
TIED TO A WEAKENING TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE GULF AND SOUTHERN
EASTERN SEABOARD, NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH OF A PREDICTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS WELL TO ITS NORTH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF TROUGHS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, RESPECTIVELY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN MAINLAND, TIED TO THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MODESTLY FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
(EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS, WHERE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY, AS THE STORM TRACK MOVES NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLANS LATER
IN THE PERIOD) ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND POTENTIAL FRONTAL FORCING AND ENHANCED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS GENERALLY FAVORED FOR
ALASKA, DUE TO A PAIR OF TROUGHS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
RESPECTIVELY, CONSISTENT WITH OPERATIONAL AUTOBLEND AND ERF CONSOLIDATION
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII
TIED TO A MID LEVEL LOW PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE, OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 03, 2026
THE PREDICTED 500-HPA PATTERN FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD IS REMARKABLE IN TERMS OF
ITS LACK OF AMPLIFICATION. NEAR NORMAL MEAN HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF
ALASKA AND THE ENTIRE CONUS. MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, BUT EVEN THESE ANOMALIES ARE
GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE WEAK. THE MOST PROMINENT ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL FEATURE
IS A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC, WHICH HAS RETROGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS. A STRONG ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST OVER THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE AND ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA.
MODEST TROUGHS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND
NEAR SOUTHEASTERN GREENLAND. PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OR A CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST NEAR OR OVER HAWAII.
GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS, MODESTLY ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS, WHERE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED). HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 60
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA, NEAR
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST, AS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BEGINS TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ALASKA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW. A TILT TOWARD
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND TIED
TO THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE FORECAST OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
CANADA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH
OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TIED TO A WEAKENING TROUGH. AS THIS
TROUGH WEAKENS, THE MEAN STORM TRACK IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD, SO NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A WETTER
PATTERN IS MODESTLY FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, AS THE RETROGRESSION OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED FOR LOWER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, AS A PREDICTED NORTHWARD DRIFT OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LATER IN THE PERIOD IS SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS TIME PROGRESSES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF
ALASKA UNDERNEATH PREDICTED MEAN CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW. A PERSISTENT
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR HAWAII FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF
1-5, DUE TO VERY WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST DOMAIN.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20170623 - 20000628 - 20190613 - 20190618 - 19980603
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20190613 - 20000627 - 20190618 - 20170623 - 19980603
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - 29 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA B A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 03, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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